Since 2019, the intraday structure of the GB power market has changed materially. Midday gas generation has fallen sharply, while three north-west European interconnectors now import into Britain during solar hours before reversing direction overnight. The result is a persistent £22 ($29.5)/MWh spread between midday and evening power prices that current interconnector flow patterns do not fully arbitrage.
For most of the past two decades, gas-fired generation acted as the balancing fuel of Britain’s power system. Combined-cycle gas turbines ramped through the day and eased back overnight when demand was lowest. Between 2019 and 2025, UK gas generation fell by a third and coal generation disappeared entirely. Wind and solar now generate more electricity than gas. Midday has become the cheapest period of the trading day and the most likely to clear at negative prices, while evening prices continue to reflect thermal generation costs roughly £22/MWh higher. Britain has become a daytime sink for surplus continental solar, importing power through north-west European interconnectors during daylight hours and exporting wind-driven surplus back overnight. Britain’s wind fleet supplies the discharge half of that cycle. The combination is reshaping wholesale price formation in Britain and recalibrating the economics of assets that must clear in the market.
Between 2019 and 2025, the UK generation mix changed materially. Gas generation fell 33%, from 115 to 77 TWh. Coal generation fell from 5.9 TWh to zero following the closure of the UK’s last coal station in September 2024. Nuclear generation fell 35% to 34 TWh as AGR retirements accelerated. Over the same period, wind generation increased 47% to 86 TWh, solar generation rose 62% to 18.7 TWh, and net imports across the eight measurable interconnectors more than doubled to 22 TWh. Total generation remained broadly stable, falling only from 292 to 289 TWh.
At 50% LHV CCGT efficiency, the 37 TWh reduction in gas-fired generation represents approximately 7.1 bcm of natural gas displaced from the UK power sector. With underlying electricity demand broadly flat across the period, the reduction reflects supply-side substitution rather than demand contraction. The CCGT fleet has also shifted away from baseload operation toward deeper intraday cycling. Capacity factors across the UK’s 30 GW CCGT fleet fell from 44% to 29%. Half-hourly minimum gas burn declined from 2.5 GW in 2019 to 1.2 GW in 2025, with the first sub-1 GW half-hours appearing in 2024. Half-hours with less than 3 GW of gas generation increased from 46 in 2019 to 2,349 in 2025, equivalent to 13% of settlement periods.
January to April 2026: The trend has accelerated
Gas generation in January to April 2026 fell to 26.2 TWh, down 20% year on year and only 0.5 TWh above the January-to-April low recorded in 2024. Wind generation increased 34% to 36 TWh, with instantaneous output reaching a record 23.88 GW on 25 March 2026. Solar output peaked at 16.3 GW on 23 April. Whilst it may appear that the market is swinging in wind and solar’s favour, there was a clear increase in negative priced periods – meaning zero payouts from the Contracts for Differences (CfDs) that support many wind and solar projects. Negative day-ahead prices occurred in 16.9% of midday half-hours during April, up from 11.3% in summer 2025 and 7.7% in summer 2024.
02. Two operating regimes across the GB interconnector fleet
Aggregate net-flow figures obscure two distinct operating regimes across the GB interconnector fleet that only become visible at half-hourly resolution. Three cables operate as quasi-baseload importers, with two primarily carrying French nuclear-linked flows and the third reflecting Norwegian hydro dispatch under current market conditions. Three others cycle several gigawatts within the day, importing during continental solar hours and exporting overnight. Two additional cables operate as a relatively steady westward flow into Ireland. The resulting flow patterns correspond closely to the underlying supply structures of neighbouring power markets.
French interconnectors: structurally importing
IFA2 (1 GW) and ElecLink (1 GW) flowed into GB in 86% of summer 2025 half-hours, with annual churn ratios of 0.05 and 0.02 respectively. The churn ratio measures how often a cable reverses direction, with values near zero indicating near-unidirectional flow. Together the two cables delivered 11.6 TWh of net imports into GB in 2025. IFA1, the original 2 GW France interconnector, returned to full capacity in 2024. Although absent from the half-hourly dataset used here, residual import volumes suggest it also carried substantial inflows.
The flow profile reflects a structural change in French reactor dispatch. Hourly ENTSO-E data show EDF flexing its nuclear fleet by roughly 4.4 GW between midday and evening during summer 2025, compared with limited intraday modulation in 2019. The remaining midday surplus is exported into neighbouring markets, with some volume reaching GB directly through the French interconnectors and the remainder lowering continental prices coupled into the GB market. France remained a net exporter in 98.5% of hours during 2025, with total net exports of 92.3 TWh. The export profile is increasingly concentrated outside the continental midday solar peak.
Norway Link: hydro dispatch under current price conditions
NSL (1.4 GW) connects GB to the Norwegian hydro system. The cable flowed into GB in 86% of summer 2025 half-hours, with a churn ratio of 0.05 and annual net imports of 9 TWh. On annual metrics the cable resembles the French interconnectors, but the underlying dispatch logic differs. Norwegian hydro output is optimised against reservoir constraints and cross-border price spreads. Under current market conditions, GB prices continue to support southbound flows during most hours of the day. NSL already exhibits a modest intraday profile, with average flow rising from 783 MW at 14:00 to 1,184 MW around 20:00. The shape reflects the underlying optimisation incentives within the Norwegian hydro system.
Early 2026 data suggest this pattern is beginning to change. Between January and April 2026, NSL registered five aggregate export hours, with the deepest occurring at 04:00 and averaging −156 MW. This is the first quarter on record in which the Norway interconnector has shown aggregate export hours. The underlying mechanism mirrors developments already visible elsewhere in continental Europe. As midday price floors weaken further across Iberia and Benelux, the opportunity cost of holding reservoir water through GB solar hours increases, gradually changing dispatch incentives. If this pattern strengthens, NSL is likely to join the broader intraday cycling behaviour already visible on the continental-facing cables. In that scenario, the effective GB midday absorption ceiling would rise from roughly 3.4 GW across BritNed, Nemo and Viking to approximately 4.8 GW including NSL.
The cycling group: continental solar overflow
BritNed (1 GW), Nemo (1 GW) and Viking (1.4 GW) exhibit a markedly different intraday flow profile. During summer 2025, their combined hourly mean flow ranged from −1,469 MW at 05:00 to +2,135 MW at 10:00, representing an intraday swing of roughly 3.6 GW. Each cable flowed into GB during 79% to 92% of noon half-hours and exported from GB during 64% to 87% of pre-dawn half-hours. BritNed alone recorded 2.9 TWh of gross imports and 2.5 TWh of gross exports during 2025. The flow pattern is driven by continental supply conditions, with German solar generation sitting upstream of all three interconnectors.
Germany has no direct interconnection with GB, so excess midday solar generation first moves into neighbouring continental markets. As flows saturate the France-Germany corridor, the French nuclear fleet increases intraday modulation to absorb part of the surplus. Additional excess generation then spreads north through the Netherlands, Belgium and Denmark before reaching GB through BritNed, Nemo and Viking. The three cables therefore reverse direction within the day, importing continental solar-linked surplus during daylight hours and exporting GB wind-linked surplus overnight.
Ireland and the discharge half of the cycle
Moyle (0.5 GW, Northern Ireland) and East-West (0.5 GW, Ireland) operate as persistent net exporters from GB into the Irish market, delivering 3.9 TWh westward during 2025. The all-island Irish system remains heavily wind exposed and uses GB as a balancing sink during low-demand periods. The largest exports occur overnight when GB wind output is strongest and Irish demand is weakest. Combined with the overnight reversal of the cycling interconnectors, these flows return power to neighbouring markets during periods of elevated GB wind generation. Between 22:00 and 06:00 the cycling cables collectively export from GB, reaching roughly −1,469 MW around 05:00. At that hour, GB wind generation contributes approximately 7.4 GW, equivalent to 33% of transmission system demand. These overnight reversals complete the daily import-export cycle created by continental solar inflows during the day and GB wind surplus overnight.
03. Midday compression and interconnector spreads
GB wholesale prices now exhibit pronounced intraday compression around midday solar hours. Summer baseload prices rose from £19/MWh in 2019 to £36.50/MWh in 2025 following the 2022 gas shock, but the more significant structural change has occurred within the trading day. In summer 2019, midday and evening prices were broadly aligned, with CCGTs setting marginal prices through most hours. By summer 2025, the spread between midday and evening prices had widened to roughly £22/MWh. Midday prices averaged near £28/MWh, while evening prices continued to reflect thermal generation costs closer to £50/MWh. Negative midday prices, largely absent before 2020, occurred in 11.3% of summer midday half-hours during 2025 and in 16.9% of midday half-hours during April 2026. The April monthly low reached −£29.27/MWh.
The resulting capture-rate compression is most visible in solar generation. UK wind capture rates declined from 96% of baseload prices in 2019 to 90% in 2025, while solar capture rates fell from 97% to 83% over the same period. The compression is structural rather than cyclical. Solar generation remains concentrated in the same hours in which prices now clear lowest and increasingly below zero. Projects bidding into the AR8 CfD auction in summer 2026 will need to seriously consider the risk of sustained exposure to negative priced periods in their bids.
The cycling interconnectors are arbitraging a different intraday spread. The cables reverse direction around dawn, approximately twelve hours before the GB evening peak. Combined flows shift from peak imports of 2,135 MW at 10:00 to peak exports of 1,469 MW at 05:00. During 2025, the volume-weighted GB price associated with imports across the cycling trio averaged £41.69/MWh, while the export-weighted GB price averaged £38.54/MWh. On the GB side, the cables therefore captured a slightly negative average spread. The wider £22/MWh midday-to-evening spread sits largely outside the hours in which the cables reverse direction. In practice, the interconnectors are arbitraging GB midday prices against the continental pre-dawn ramp rather than the GB evening peak. The deeper intraday spread driving solar capture-rate compression therefore remains largely uncaptured within the GB market.
CCGT operators face the same structural shift from the opposite side of the curve. A 29% capacity factor across a 30 GW fleet implies that energy-market revenues no longer dominate fleet economics. Capacity Market revenues and balancing services are becoming increasingly central to asset viability, raising questions around the economics of hydrogen-ready conversion relative to staged retirement against a rapidly expanding BESS pipeline.
Interconnector saturation and the battery response
The next phase of market evolution is likely to be driven by the same intraday dynamics already visible today. Continued solar expansion across Iberia and Benelux is expected to place further downward pressure on continental midday prices, increasing the incentive for additional imports into GB through the cycling interconnectors and deepening midday price compression within the GB market. Early 2026 data already show NSL beginning to register aggregate export hours. If this behaviour becomes established, the effective GB midday import absorption ceiling would increase from roughly 3.4 GW to approximately 4.8 GW. Under current market conditions, this would temporarily expand the system’s ability to absorb additional continental midday surplus.
Beyond that point, two countervailing pressures begin to emerge. First, continued solar growth across continental Europe is likely to increase intraday nuclear modulation within France, reducing the volume of exportable midday surplus available to neighbouring systems. Second, NESO Future Energy Scenarios project sustained GB electricity-demand growth associated with electrification, firming GB midday prices and narrowing the spread that currently draws low-cost imports into the GB market.
Current regulatory structures were designed around a different interconnector flow profile. Ofgem’s cap-and-floor framework continues to assess projects largely around directional merchant flows, while current cable revenues increasingly depend on intraday spread capture. Similarly, NESO trading-cap structures were developed for a system dominated by persistent one-way flows rather than repeated intraday reversals.
In both scenarios, the market signal points toward the same outcome: additional intraday storage capacity within GB. The £22/MWh spread between midday and evening prices strongly favours assets capable of charging during solar hours and discharging into the evening peak within the same market. The spread persists because the relevant arbitrage window occurs largely outside the hours in which the cycling interconnectors reverse direction. At current spreads, a 1 GW four-hour battery cycling once per day captures gross arbitrage revenues of roughly £32 million per gigawatt-year before Capacity Market or balancing-service revenues.
The 23 GW to 27 GW battery target set in the Government’s Clean Power 2030 Plan reenforces the market’s signals that additional storage is required. However, as additional storage capacity enters the market, it is likely to compress the midday-to-evening spread and replace part of the balancing role currently performed through cross-border cycling. WSP’s Electricity Market Outlook projections suggest declining TB1-4 spreads and lower operating hours for storage over the 2030s as storage cannibalizes its arbitrage opportunities.
How WSP’s Electricity Market Outlook can help
How quickly will continued continental solar expansion push the GB cycling interconnectors toward their effective absorption limit? At what point does additional GB BESS deployment begin to materially compress the midday-to-evening spread currently visible in the GB market? These questions are increasingly central to CfD bid strategy, interconnector economics and storage investment decisions.
WSP’s Electricity Market Outlook (EMO) is designed to analyse these market dynamics. The underlying PRIMES model has supported European Commission energy-policy analysis for more than two decades and simulates all major European electricity markets simultaneously through to 2050. Cross-border flows are derived using a replication of the EUPHEMIA market-coupling algorithm used by ENTSO-E. Model outputs include hourly wholesale prices, capture rates, negative-price frequency and depth, curtailment exposure, interconnector utilisation and BESS profitability projections at both country and asset level. These outputs provide the quantitative basis for CfD bid assessment, Window 3 interconnector business-case analysis and long-term storage revenue modelling.
Author: Safa Sen, Market Engagement Lead For CWE at Ricardo, Member of WSP.
Ricardo is a member of professional service firm WSP Group, uniting engineering, advisory and science-based expertise to shape communities to advance humanity. From local beginnings to a globe-spanning presence today, it operates in over 50 countries and provides solutions and delivers innovative projects across sectors: Transport & Infrastructure, Property & Buildings, Earth & Environment, Water, Power & Energy and Mining & Metals.
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