Model and Analysis
- India has very aggressive plans for scaling RE (450 GW by 2030; today is 100 GW)
- Using 2019 time of day (ToD) data for both demand and supply by fuel type, what happens over time (2021-2030) for the system (national level) under different assumptions of rising RE? Will the RE be enough to avoid new coal?
Will there be a risk of “too much” RE (that might be curtailed)? What will be least cost options for the system?
How should we think of batteries?
What are the key choices and points of uncertainty that matter? etc.
- This is a simplified despatch model but using real 2019 ToD data all-India
- The focus is on insights and trends – and what factors matter
Unique features of this study/model
- Parametric analysis with 30-minute resolution
- Future RE is modeled VERY differently and explicitly Different shapes of outputs
Different shares of wind vs. solar
- Segregate capacity and energy for battery
- Most studies assume “4-hour battery”, i.e., $200/kWh = 0.25 kW output for 4 hours
- Some studies use LCOE for battery operating like a fuel
• Use varying escalation rates across capital, fuel, forex, interest, etc. (thus, not a simple LCOE)
All RE isn’t the same
• Solar and wind dominate, esp. the growth – 450 GW target by 2030 could be 420 GW solar and wind (per CEA, also projects 2:1 ratio)
• Solar is diurnal variance, less seasonal variance than wind But wind provides more output during evening peak
• Solar is less expensive on an levelized cost of energy (LCOE) basis
Solar has a lower Capacity Utilization Factor aka Plant Load Factor than wind
New growth may be 27% and 36+%, respectively
That excludes rooftop, which remains low PLFs (and is “negative demand”)
• Big Unknown – shape of RE growth over the years (CAGR, linear, etc.)?
Model assumes exponential/CAGR
Practical but it also reflects today’s reality in energy terms:
Growth of RE < Growth of Demand (energy basis)
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