Model and Analysis

• India has very aggressive plans for scaling RE (450 GW by 2030; today is 100 GW)
• Using 2019 time of day (ToD) data for both demand and supply by fuel type, what happens over time (2021-2030) for the system (national level) under different assumptions of rising RE? Will the RE be enough to avoid new coal?
   Will there be a risk of “too much” RE (that might be curtailed)? What will be least cost options for the system?
   How should we think of batteries?
   What are the key choices and points of uncertainty that matter?  etc.
• This is a simplified despatch model but using real 2019 ToD data all-India
• The focus is on insights and trends – and what factors matter

Unique features of this study/model

• Parametric analysis with 30-minute resolution
• Future RE is modeled VERY differently and explicitly Different shapes of outputs
  Different shares of wind vs. solar
• Segregate capacity and energy for battery
• Most studies assume “4-hour battery”, i.e., $200/kWh = 0.25 kW output for 4 hours
• Some studies use LCOE for battery operating like a fuel

• Use varying escalation rates across capital, fuel, forex, interest, etc. (thus, not a simple LCOE)

All RE isn’t the same

• Solar and wind dominate, esp. the growth – 450 GW target by 2030 could be 420 GW solar and wind (per CEA, also projects 2:1 ratio)

• Solar is diurnal variance, less seasonal variance than wind  But wind provides more output during evening peak

• Solar is less expensive on an levelized cost of energy (LCOE) basis
Solar has a lower Capacity Utilization Factor aka Plant Load Factor than wind

New growth may be 27% and 36+%, respectively
That excludes rooftop, which remains low PLFs (and is “negative demand”)

• Big Unknown – shape of RE growth over the years (CAGR, linear, etc.)?

 Model assumes exponential/CAGR
Practical but it also reflects today’s reality in energy terms:

Growth of RE < Growth of Demand (energy basis)

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