executive summary The world will pass the 1 TWp installed solar capacity in 2022. This symbolic threshold is sure to be met after a record 191 GWp has been installed in 2021 based on various sources citing Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) predictions in October 2021. A similar, but somewhat more conservative estimate comes from IRENA, which calculated the total installed capacity at the end of 2020 at 716 GW (it is to be noted that IRENA adds PV and CSP capacity, while BNEF only computes PV capacities).
by the end of 2020 (2021 figures are still to be published at the time of writing this report). AFSIA also compiles its own database of solar projects. While IRENA bases its computations on a combination of data gathering methods (among which import statistics), AFSIA has opted for the approach of identifying individual projects and their related capacities. This approach offers the benefits of even more granularity (the AFSIA team has identified more than 8,600 projects to date out of which close to 4,000 already in operation) but it also has its disadvantages.
introduction AFSIA’s Annual Solar Outlook report distinguishes itself from other industry report through its format. It is composed of concise and information-rich “country vignettes” which are literally deep-dives into the key market drivers and indicators for solar opportunities on a country level. This report is meant to become the solar decision-maker year-long companion for fast access to information and identifying business opportunities. In 2021, the large scale segment has continued its growth in several corners of the continent with an additional 552 MWp coming online, representing a 7.7% increase of the historically installed capacity for large scale projects in Africa. South Africa again is leading the charge here and has contributed to 2/3 of this new capacity. But some new countries have joined the group of African nations including solar in their generation mix in 2021, such as Malawi, Togo, Somaliland, Burundi and Somalia. Other projects might not have reached operational stage yet but have made significant progress, confirming for the most part AFSIA’s 2021 anticipation of African countries susceptible to join the “Gigawatt Club” in the near future. These notable developments are currently taking place in Algeria, Morocco, Angola, Namibia, Botswana to cite a few.
tender for the 1st phase of 1 GW. This phase called “Solar 1000 MW” will welcome the best offers from international IPP for individual projects ranging between 50 MW and 300 MW. Each bidder will be allowed to submit offers for a maximum of 300 MW, de facto meaning there will be at least 4 companies awarded projects under this scheme. Each project will be a PPP (Public-Private Partnership) as the local company SHAEMS, mandated by the Ministry of Energetic Transition and Renewable Energies, will provide the land for the projects and will take a participation in each project company. Finally, Angola is also experiencing an interesting and promising development of large scale projects on its territory. As discussed in a separate article, several projects have started construction in the country, albeit a bit under the radar. It is no surprise given the Focus on large scale importance of oil and gas in the country that traditional oil giants are playing a key role in the development of large scale solar in Angola. But the non-oil consortium composed of MCA Group and Sun Africa is currently also building important projects in the country, with a total pipeline of close to 1 GW.