Mainstream energy forecasters agree that wind and solar will grow substantially through 2050 but expect the process of change to be slow and gradual. But forecasting is especially difficult for emerging technologies moving into mainstream adoption, whether cell phones in the early 2000s or solar power and electric vehicles (EVs) today. History suggests that even optimistic projections may underestimate the pace. Significantly, even small changes in near-term growth assumptions, sustained for a few years, can produce dramatically different long-run outcomes. This feature explores the potential implications of the Mideast crisis on the trajectory for fossil fuels through an in-depth look at the power sector.

source