This market report is based on data and analysis from Infolink Consulting.
Cautious sentiment continues to dominate the global solar PV value chain, with limited signs of a sustained recovery in demand despite some stabilisation in upstream pricing.
In the polysilicon segment, buyers have largely delayed new contract negotiations amid persistent market uncertainty. Transaction activity remains focused on fulfilling existing orders, while procurement is being carried out in small batches as manufacturers work through elevated inventories and attempt to manage costs. Although granular polysilicon prices have edged higher in negotiations, only limited deals have been concluded, underscoring the ongoing imbalance between supply and demand.
Market discussions around anti price war measures and potential cost floors have re emerged, though concrete outcomes remain unclear. Average polysilicon prices are expected to rise modestly to RMB 33 to 35 per kg, with limited upside potential due to weak demand expectations for April and May.
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Current price ranges indicate recycled mono grade polysilicon at RMB 35 to 36 per kg, with offers reaching RMB 37 per kg but no confirmed transactions. Mono grade mixed lots are trading at RMB 32 to 34 per kg, while granular polysilicon is priced between RMB 34 and 36 per kg, with negotiations ongoing at RMB 37 per kg. Outside China, average polysilicon prices remain stable at around US$ 18 per kg.
The wafer segment has shown early signs of stabilisation following an uptick in upstream polysilicon pricing and market speculation around potential industry coordination. Manufacturers have responded by raising quotes, with 183N wafers now at RMB 0.92 per piece, 210RN at RMB 1.02 per piece, and 210N at RMB 1.22 per piece.
However, actual transaction prices have yet to fully reflect these increases, with continued buyer resistance and negotiations at lower levels. Inventory build up ahead of recent price hikes has further dampened procurement activity, resulting in subdued trading volumes. While larger format wafers are seeing relatively stronger price support, overall momentum for a sustained rebound remains limited.
In the cell segment, price declines have begun to moderate. N type cell prices in China have stabilised, with 183N and 210N both averaging RMB 0.33 per W, while 210RN has edged down slightly to RMB 0.335 per W. As wafer prices rise, expectations for higher cell prices are emerging, particularly for 210N products.
If planned production cuts materialise between late April and early May, and cost support remains stable, cell prices are expected to stabilise with a potential upward bias. In export markets, prices have remained largely unchanged, with both P type and N type cells holding at around US$ 0.049 per W.
Module pricing continues to face headwinds, particularly in China. In the ground mounted segment, manufacturers have attempted modest price increases, but limited order volumes have constrained actual transaction gains. Prices are currently in the range of RMB 0.68 to 0.75 per W.
In contrast, the distributed generation segment has seen early signs of price softening, as competitive pressures force manufacturers to lower quotes. Transaction prices are currently between RMB 0.76 and 0.80 per W.
Internationally, module prices remain relatively stable at around US$ 0.11 to 0.12 per W. In the Middle East, logistical disruptions linked to regional instability are limiting price movement, while European prices are holding at US$ 0.12 to 0.125 per W on an FOB basis.
A notable divergence has emerged between ground mounted and distributed segments, with pricing trends moving in opposite directions. Distributed market prices in China have adjusted downward more rapidly, while ground mounted project pricing continues to reflect earlier contracts and slower renegotiation cycles.
Overall, solar PV manufacturers are increasingly shifting their pricing strategies. Rather than prioritising margins, companies are focusing on securing orders and maintaining production stability. This has led to more flexible pricing approaches and a gradual softening of previously firm pricing positions.
Despite short term price stability, the broader market remains constrained by weak end market demand and limited new order activity. As cost support continues to soften and demand recovery remains uncertain, downside risks are increasing. Market indicators suggest that a potential turning point may emerge in the latter part of April, with price pressures likely to persist in the near term.
Author: Bryan Groenendaal

 






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