Policy changes in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) and fluctuating pricing created uncertainty for corporate renewable energy buyers in the United States in the first half of 2026.
Trio’s Global Renewables Market Report, however, notes that a critical window is now open and aims to provide these decision makers with strategic guidance that includes actionable next steps.
Today, tax credit requirements and construction deadlines are increasing risk, cost and execution for renewable energy projects, causing developers to rush to complete projects prior to required deadlines. Other disruptors of U.S.-based projects include supply chain-related issues and permitting delays, which pressure completion timelines.
The Trio report states that U.S. renewable buyers face a “critical-decision-making window” over the next four years. For example, procurement strategies are already affected by proposed revisions to the GHG Protocol’s Scope 2 guidance as well as by the expanding state-level clean energy initiatives.
That four-year window opened this year with innovative approaches to renewable energy contracts. Trio says companies will continue to look for ways to better match renewable energy to time of us and some may may choose to bundle solar or wind with battery storage, so clean energy is available when the sun isn’t shining or the wind isn’t blowing.
By 2028, many of the projects that began construction before the July 4 start of construction deadline will be contracted and progressing toward completion. New projects will face evolving policy and market conditions, “potentially at a significantly higher price due to the lack of federal tax credit eligibility for the newly developed projects,” the report says.
Furthermore, the results of interconnection queue reform in different regions may begin to manifest in 2028, which the report notes could influence project pacing and regional development.
2029 offers meaningful opportunity, although solar and wind options on new projects will be limited or much more expensive than the current market, the report states. However, buyers still have clear, actionable space in 2029 to secure value and work toward decarbonization goals.
Trio advises that buyers can focus on projects aligned with the published OBBBA credit timelines and expand their procurement strategy.
By 2030, buyers may increasingly evaluate a broader mix of technologies as a part of long-term procurement strategies, the report says. Because greater transparency around the alignment of renewable energy contracts and electricity consumption/emissions reporting, the report expects that the market will place a premium on “well-structured contracts, credible environmental attributes and clear documentation of project eligibility.”
RECs
With the drop in renewable energy project buildout since passage of the OBBBA, the supply of renewable energy credits (RECs) may be affected, the report states. At the same time, both supply and voluntary demand remain healthy with buyers purchasing RECs despite federal policy challenges. Prices of renewable energy credits will remain favorable although volatility will be seen in some markets, the report says.
Community solar
Community solar is an increasingly popular renewables sector in the U.S., which surpassed 10 GW of cumulative community solar installed in 2025. With more state policy support, new players are entering the market. Mature markets are supporting larger projects with better billing structures and easier participation.
Trio notes that 2026 offers opportunities for buyers to secure local, cost-effective energy solutions in established and emerging markets and recommends the following:
PPAs
PPA pricing in the U.S. has been stable in select regions, according to Trio, although challenges such as interconnection congestion and concentrated corporate demand remain.
The report finds five factors affecting pricing of PPAs.
“In the U.S., evolving tax credit eligibility and execution risk are raising costs and constraining supply,” said Joey Lange, senior managing director, sustainability and clean energy at Trio. “Potential buyers who wait to commit may find it more difficult and expensive to meet clean energy goals as rules tighten and markets narrow over the next four years, and they should consider moving forward with procurement promptly.”
Buyers who act sooner rather than later will be better positioned, the report notes, as development and procurement deadlines are tightening.
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