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With the world bracing for severe weather from a super El Niño, India discovers that alternative energy generation is facing a new set of challenges.
JAISALMER, Rajasthan — Millions of photovoltaic panels stretching toward the horizon in neat rows bake under the searing Indian sun. By noon, the metal frames are too hot to touch. Waves of heat shimmer above the ground. This solar farm is just part of India’s answer to the growing threat of climate change.
While US President Donald Trump has done his best to ensure continued dependence on fossil fuels — including oil, gas, and coal — India sees the renewables future and is investing heavily in alternative energy.
The Indian bet may be just in time. UN Secretary General António Guterres has warned that this year’s El Niño promises to be one of the most intense in history and is likely to offer a preview of harsher climate disasters to come. India is especially vulnerable, and it is now recognizing that while solar power offers a promising solution, scientists have discovered that extreme heat and air pollution are obstacles that even the power of the sun has trouble overcoming.
“Ten years ago, extreme heat was mostly limited to a few weeks of summer,” says Rajesh Kumar, 36, a maintenance supervisor at a solar facility in western Rajasthan. “Now high temperatures arrive earlier, and they last longer. We have to monitor panel temperatures more closely because their efficiency drops during the hottest parts of the day.”
His observations echo concerns raised by scientists who warn that rising temperatures and worsening air pollution could undermine India’s solar energy ambitions in the decades ahead.
The warning comes from a study published in Environmental Research Letters by scientists at the Center for Atmospheric Sciences, IIT Delhi. Using radiation data from climate models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the researchers examined how climate change and air pollution could affect solar photovoltaic (SPV) performance across India in the coming decades.
Comparing historical conditions between 1985 and 2014 with projections for 2041–2050, the study found that SPV efficiency could decline by around 3.3 percent by midcentury. Based on current generation levels, that could result in annual electricity losses of between 600 and 840 gigawatt-hours (GWh).
Researchers identified two major threats. The first is air pollution. Aerosols, soot, dust, and other particulate matter reduce the amount of sunlight reaching solar panels by scattering and absorbing solar radiation, a process known as “solar dimming.”
The second is rising temperatures. While solar panels require sunlight to generate electricity, excessive heat reduces their efficiency. The study projects solar cell temperatures could rise by as much as 2 degrees Celsius (about 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2050.
Northern and western states, including Rajasthan, Delhi, and Uttar Pradesh, are expected to face some of the greatest impacts because they are simultaneously experiencing worsening air quality and more frequent heatwaves.
“Climate change does not affect only crops, water resources, or public health. It is now beginning to affect renewable energy infrastructure itself.” – Dr. Arvind Menon
The findings come as India pursues one of the world’s largest renewable energy expansions. The country has installed more than 100 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity and aims to achieve 500 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030. Researchers say understanding how climate change and pollution affect solar performance will be critical to ensuring those targets remain achievable.
“The findings are a reminder that climate change does not affect only crops, water resources, or public health. It is now beginning to affect renewable energy infrastructure itself,” said Dr. Arvind Menon, 48, a climate scientist based in New Delhi.
Scientists say the study’s findings highlight how environmental conditions could increasingly influence the performance of renewable energy infrastructure.
Particles released from vehicles, industries, construction activity, and biomass burning scatter and absorb sunlight before it reaches solar panels.
On many winter mornings in Delhi, residents wake to skies hidden beneath a blanket of gray haze. The pollution is widely known for its health impacts, but researchers say it also carries significant implications for energy production.
“When sunlight is filtered by aerosols and particulate matter, solar panels receive less radiation and naturally produce less electricity,” said Dr. Meera Khanna, 41, an atmospheric researcher who studies air quality and climate interactions.
She added that many of India’s largest population centers are also among its most polluted regions.
“Cities across northern India are experiencing both rising pollution levels and increasing temperatures. That combination creates a double burden for solar power generation,” she said.
That increase may appear modest, but experts say even small rises can significantly affect performance across large-scale solar farms.
“People often assume hotter weather automatically means better solar generation,” said Rakesh Sharma, 52, a renewable energy consultant based in Jaipur. “The reality is more complicated. Solar panels need sunlight, but excessive heat reduces their ability to convert that sunlight into electricity efficiently.”
India has experienced a series of unusually intense heatwaves in recent years. In several states, temperatures crossed 46 degrees Celsius (114.8 degrees Fahrenheit) this summer, forcing authorities to issue warnings and disrupting daily life.
Scientists have repeatedly linked the growing frequency and intensity of such events to climate change.
The consequences extend beyond public health.
Electricity demand often surges during heatwaves as households and businesses rely more heavily on cooling systems. If solar generation simultaneously declines because of extreme temperatures, pressure on power systems can increase.
“It creates an energy paradox,” said Menon. “The hotter it gets, the more electricity people need for cooling. Yet the same heat can reduce the efficiency of the solar infrastructure supplying that power.”
For policymakers, the findings raise important questions about the long-term resilience of India’s clean energy transition.
The country has invested heavily in solar parks, manufacturing facilities, and transmission networks over the past decade. Officials view renewable energy as essential for reducing dependence on imported fossil fuels while meeting rising electricity demand.
Experts say future planning must increasingly account for climate risks.
“Many energy projections assume stable environmental conditions,” said Priya Sethi, 45, an energy policy analyst based in Bengaluru. “But climate change is altering those conditions. Future energy planning must include the impacts of heat stress, air pollution, and changing atmospheric dynamics.”
Some researchers believe the solution lies partly in cleaner air.
Reducing emissions from transport, industry, and crop residue burning would improve public health while allowing more sunlight to reach solar installations.
“The fight against air pollution and the expansion of renewable energy should not be viewed as separate policy goals,” said Sethi. “They reinforce one another.”
Technology may also help offset some of the losses.
Manufacturers are developing advanced solar cells capable of operating more efficiently under high-temperature conditions. Researchers are also exploring cooling systems, improved panel materials, and new installation designs that enhance airflow and reduce heat buildup.
“Solar technology has evolved tremendously over the last decade,” said Sharma. “The next generation of panels will likely be better equipped to handle the environmental stresses associated with climate change.”
Regular cleaning of solar panels is another important factor, particularly in regions where dust accumulation can significantly reduce output.
Across Rajasthan and Gujarat, operators increasingly use automated cleaning systems to maintain performance and reduce water consumption.
Still, experts caution that technology alone cannot solve the problem.
“The broader challenge remains climate change itself,” said Khanna. “If temperatures continue rising and air quality continues deteriorating, the cumulative impacts will become increasingly difficult to ignore.”
The IIT Delhi findings arrive as countries around the world race to expand renewable energy capacity in an effort to limit global warming.
India’s transition is particularly significant because of its size, population, and rapidly growing energy demand. Success or failure could have implications far beyond its borders.
As evening approaches in Jaisalmer, the desert heat begins to wane and long shadows stretch across the solar park. The panels continue generating electricity as the sun descends toward the horizon.
India’s solar revolution remains firmly underway, but researchers say its long-term success may depend not only on installing more panels, but also on tackling the pollution and warming that increasingly threaten their performance.
“Solar energy remains one of humanity’s most powerful tools against climate change,” said Menon. “But if we want it to deliver its full potential, we must address the environmental conditions that are beginning to undermine it.”
The message from scientists is increasingly clear: The success of India’s solar future may depend as much on cleaning its skies as on building new solar panels beneath them.
