Once again, El Niño is poised to affect the rains in India. According to the IMD (India Meteorological Department), rainfall is projected to be only 90% of the LPA (Long Period Average). If so, India will witness its first below-normal rains in three years. The IMD data revealed that the nation received barely 42.6 mm of rainfall between 04 June and 18 June, compared with the normal 72.2 mm, resulting in a 41% shortfall.
El Niño’s Impact on Power Demand
Extreme weather patterns triggered by El Niño are clearly impacting the demand for electricity and its pan-India supply dynamics. Cooling demand has reached unprecedented levels due to record temperatures, straining the overall power infrastructure by causing a massive surge in daytime cooling demand and farmers’ irrigation needs. This has increased the requirement for reliable but affordable energy. Recurring weather disruptions and erratic rainfall patterns that hinder conventional power generation sources have exacerbated the situation, exposing vulnerabilities in the domestic energy ecosystem.
Some readers may be aware that El Niño is a natural climate pattern in which sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become warmer than average. El Niño and other extreme weather patterns directly affect energy security by increasing cooling demand during the day. With water-dependent traditional power plants stretched, solar energy emerges as an essential demand-driven solution. Unlike coal and other legacy energy sources, which are constrained by resource availability during climate stress, solar generation is optimal during peak daytime demand. This trait makes solar a key element of the country’s energy security strategy.
The Link Between Weather and Power Supplies
Some elaboration is required on how weather-related events can affect the conventional electricity supply, thereby disrupting the normal power demand scenario. For example, hydroelectric power is affected when erratic rainfall reduces reservoir levels, directly disrupting the generation capacity of hydroelectric projects.
The extra demand for power can also create capacity constraints for thermal production. When power demand surges during heatwaves, bottlenecks increase, limiting fossil fuel-based plants’ ability to generate electricity. Operating thermal plants at maximum capacity for prolonged periods can induce extreme thermal and mechanical stress. Machines then become most susceptible to forced outages or sudden failures. Since coal-fired power plants have minimum load limits, wear and tear can be irreversible if they are forced to ramp up or down.
Furthermore, for boilers and cooling, thermal plants require large volumes of water. Scorching summer temperatures can cause droughts and severe heatwaves, drastically reducing reservoir water levels. As a result, the power generation capacity of thermal plants is restricted.
Solar Power: Advantages and Constraints
Fortunately, solar does not face these challenges, as it naturally aligns with peak power demand during daylight hours. Consequently, it is best suited to providing a reliable energy buffer during periods when thermal or conventional hydropower plants face capacity or resource constraints.
Building a robust domestic solar manufacturing ecosystem is imperative. The post-pandemic era has highlighted how supply chain disruptions can be exacerbated by geopolitical flashpoints and trade uncertainties, heightening the strategic risk of key supplies being choked off.
Why Domestic Manufacturing is Imperative
Accordingly, the best way to safeguard India’s energy security and long-term supply chain flexibility is by building domestic manufacturing capabilities in the solar sector. Fortunately, the Centre has already implemented several enabling policies to promote solar manufacturing. These measures focus on offering financial incentives, ensuring trade protection and imposing stringent quality control norms. The main aim is to curb import dependence and save forex by building an end-to-end supply chain ecosystem in India.
Among others, the measures include the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM), the Basic Customs Duty (BCD) programme and the Domestic Content Requirement (DCR) scheme. PLI is a multi-billion-dollar programme that incentivises manufacturers to build vertically integrated, highly efficient solar PV (photovoltaic) manufacturing units. Financial incentives are provided depending on the sales and efficiency of modules produced in India. In the case of ALMM, this mandate is enforced by the MNRE (Ministry of New and Renewable Energy), under which subsidised, government-backed, open-access projects can source solar modules only from approved India-based manufacturers.
Bright Outlook for Solar in India These measures have helped India become the second-largest solar growth market in 2025, exceeding the US in yearly solar capacity additions. By surpassing 155 GW of installed solar capacity, India has achieved 50% of its 2030 non-fossil fuel capacity target, fulfilling its NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) ahead of schedule. In the coming years, India will continue to consolidate its position as a leader in the global renewable energy landscape, with solar leading the charge. In the El Niño era, solar could be a good means of mitigating its impact.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own, and do not necessarily reflect those held by pv magazine.
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