India’s surge in power demand and reduced wind and hydropower generation output due to El Niño could drive nearly 18 TWh of additional coal burn within a year, according to new analysis from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. The analysis models the impact of the forecast transition from La Niña to El Niño on India’s power sector from July 2026 to June 2027.
The report says this year’s El Niño—the recurrent weather pattern that drives up global temperatures—will hit India’s energy system harder than anywhere else. Not only will the falling winds and rainfall associated with El Niño cut the country’s power generation from turbines and hydropower, but the warmer temperatures will also drive up demand for power-hungry air conditioning. Additional cooling demand could total as much as 10 TWh within a year—the equivalent of a quarter of Delhi’s annual electricity use.
The report says that to meet the power generation gap of nearly 18 TWh due to El Niño, currently the most likely outcome is a surge in coal-fired power, which would release an estimated 17 million tonnes of CO2. In the most severe scenario, the extra coal generation reaches 24 TWh, roughly half of India’s entire increase in coal burn last year.
There is another way, however. Solar power is playing an ever-increasing role in powering India, now meeting 24% of daytime power demand. Solar generation is also far less affected by El Niño, meaning that every additional solar panel and battery that India installs helps future-proof the grid against extreme weather patterns like this one.
India added 44.6 GW of solar last year, almost double the year before. “The effect is already visible—in 2025, total electricity generation rose by one percent, yet coal generation fell by four percent while renewable output grew by 22%. The trend has held into 2026—with thermal generation between January and May staying below its 2024 level even as demand hit a record and solar generation jumped by almost a third,” states the report.
The 2026 El Niño is a foretaste of extreme weather events that are becoming more common in a warming world. With El Niño occurring on a two-to-seven-year cycle, the extent to which India can meet or exceed its solar and storage deployment targets is the key metric for grid resilience.
“India has just endured a deadly heatwave and one of its hottest summers on record, pushing power demand to an all-time high of 270 GW. A super El Niño will raise the stakes again—putting even more strain on the grid while worsening water shortages and pressure on farming,” says Manoj Kumar, Analyst, Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). “The nation must stay on track for its target of 500 GW of non-fossil power by 2030 but also move much faster on batteries and grid upgrades, so that clean energy can meet future surges in power demand reliably and affordably.”
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