The number of solar panels coming off Australian roofs is projected to surge in the next few years but this is not just a waste challenge – it is also a significant opportunity to advance the emerging circular economy around solar photovoltaics (PV), recover valuable materials, and make Australia’s PV supply chains more resilient.
The coming wave of solar panel waste
We already know the scale of the challenge ahead: Australia could generate around one million tonnes of solar panel waste by 2035, with the embedded material value exceeding $1 billion.
Importantly, our understanding is that this may be a conservative estimate. Field data indicates that a significant proportion of systems are being decommissioned earlier than expected – sometimes well before the end of their technical life. In some cases, panels are replaced after less than 10 years, driven by system upgrades, changing household needs or installation issues.
This trend has two implications. First, it brings forward the waste challenge, increasing pressure on current disposal pathways. More positively, it also opens up the possibility of re-use markets, where panels with remaining functional life could be redeployed if we can validate their performance and safety.
Why economics and policy settings matter
The cost of sending waste solar panels to landfill is much cheaper than recycling. This is in part because the cost of landfill primarily covers the cost of labour and processing.
It does not however consider the true environmental and health costs. Solar panels contain small amounts of hazardous materials that can potentially leach into landfill and threaten ecosystems and human health.
When these costs are accounted for properly, these impacts challenge the notion that landfill is the lowest-cost solution.
Recycling, by contrast, involves higher upfront costs. These include collection and reverse logistics, labour, and specialised processing technologies. Current Australian facilities can recover up to 90% of a panel by mass – primarily aluminium, glass, cables and junction boxes. However, recovering higher-value materials such as silicon and silver remains technically and economically challenging at scale.
At the same time, the dramatic decline in the cost of new solar panels – down roughly 90% over the past decade – has raised the bar for both recycling and re-use markets.
Any second-hand or recycled product must compete with low-cost, high-performance new modules, often backed by long warranties. This creates a clear need for new business models, supported by robust data on performance, lifetime and levelised cost of energy.
Clearer regulatory signals could help shift these dynamics. Measures such as product stewardship, landfill restrictions, and national collection schemes have proven effective in other waste streams. They could provide recyclers with consistent supply, improve economics, and support the development of viable markets.
Unlocking value from a circular solar economy
There is significant upside in building domestic capability for solar panel re-use and recycling. At a material level, solar panels contain aluminium, copper, silver, silicon and glass—resources that are already central to Australia’s economy.
Per tonne, the recoverable value of key materials can reach several hundred dollars. In fact, solar panels now contain concentrations of metals comparable to declining ore grades in traditional mining. In that sense, end-of-life PV represents a form of “urban mining” that could complement Australia’s resource sector.
There are also clear strategic benefits. Global supply chains for critical inputs such as silicon wafers are highly concentrated, with the vast majority produced overseas.
Developing domestic recycling and reprocessing capability would not only recover materials but also help diversify supply chains and enhance energy security.
Some components carry additional strategic importance. For example, solar panel glass can contain antimony, a material increasingly recognised as critical for applications spanning defence, advanced computing and energy systems.
Ensuring access to these materials through recycling could support broader national priorities.
Building the systems to scale re-use and recycling
Despite the opportunity, significant barriers remain. One of the most immediate challenges is the lack of a consistent and predictable supply of end-of-life panels. Without this, recyclers face idle capacity and uncertain returns.
Product stewardship schemes can play a critical role here, ensuring panels are collected and directed into appropriate pathways.
Another challenge lies in technology development. While current recycling processes can recover bulk materials, extracting silicon, silver and copper in a sustainable and economically viable way requires further research. Some panel components such as fluorinated plastics can produce harmful emissions if not handled correctly. Addressing these issues is an active area of my team’s work, in collaboration with industry.
Re-use presents a complementary pathway, but it comes with its own set of challenges. We need low-cost, rapid testing technologies to determine whether a panel is suitable for re-deployment, along with standards that ensure safety and performance. Our work contributing to international standards, including technology under development through the International Electrotechnical Commission, is an important step in this direction.
A staged approach is also essential. In the short term, downcycling (repurposing materials into lower-value applications) can help build volume and capability. Over time, the focus should shift towards upcycling, where materials are recovered at sufficient purity to re-enter high-value supply chains, including new solar panels, semiconductors and advanced electronics.
From waste problem to strategic opportunity
Australia has a window of opportunity to get ahead of the solar waste challenge. By aligning policy, investment and innovation, we can turn what might otherwise become a growing environmental liability into an economic and strategic asset.
It will be vital to establish consistent collection pathways, support technology development, build domestic markets for recycled materials, and create the regulatory settings needed to underpin long-term investment.
If we do this well, the next phase of Australia’s solar story will not just be about deployment. We will be managing and getting value out of the whole product lifestyle, whilst unlocking environmental benefits. Ultimately, solar will be continuing to play a critical role in the energy transition.
Author: Noel Duffy, Group Leader, Solar Technologies Group, CSIRO
The views and opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own, and do not necessarily reflect those held by pv magazine.
This content is protected by copyright and may not be reused. If you want to cooperate with us and would like to reuse some of our content, please contact: [email protected].
Comments
Please login to comment
Thursday, July 16, 2026
4:00 pm – 5:00 pm CEST, Berlin, Paris, Madrid
Tuesday, July 14, 2026
2:00 pm – 3:00 pm AEST, Sydney
The June issue of pv magazine Global is out now!
Available in print and digital – get your copy today!
Thursday, September 9, 2026
11:00 am – 12:30 pm CEST, Berlin, Paris, Madrid
Entries open in seven categories: Modules, Inverters, BoS, BESS, Manufacturing, Sustainability, Projects.
April 01 – August 31, 2026
You have no items in your basket.
