The European Commission’s decision to exclude photovoltaic (PV) inverters and power conversion systems (PCS) from China and other countries it considers high risk from EU-funded clean energy projects could affect more than 28 GWdc of solar PV inverter demand between 2026 and 2030, according to a new analysis by Wood Mackenzie.
The research estimates that the measure will impact around 14% of forecast solar PV demand across Europe during the period. In the energy storage sector, approximately 12% of projected deployments could also be affected, with utility-scale battery projects expected to face the greatest exposure.
According to Wood Mackenzie, the restrictions will be felt most acutely in Central and Eastern Europe, where EU funding plays a larger role in renewable energy investment. Romania, Bulgaria, Czechia, the Baltic states and Greece are identified as the markets most exposed to the policy.
The Commission’s decision aims to reduce security risks linked to the dominance of Chinese suppliers in Europe’s inverter market. Wood Mackenzie notes that Chinese manufacturers accounted for more than 80% of inverter shipments to Europe in 2025.
The consultancy also highlights that the Commission is encouraging EU Member States to apply the same restrictions to renewable energy projects financed through national public budgets. If governments adopt this approach, the share of affected solar and storage capacity would increase well beyond the current estimates.
While European-made alternatives carry a higher upfront cost, Wood Mackenzie estimates that the overall impact on project costs would range between 2% and 8%, depending on the market segment.
However, the report stresses that the challenges extend beyond equipment prices. Procurement complexity, project redesigns and the need to separate integrated battery-inverter systems are expected to create additional hurdles, particularly in cost-sensitive markets in Eastern Europe.
The implications could also extend beyond the European Union. Wood Mackenzie notes that utility-scale solar projects in North Africa, the Middle East and the Caspian region that rely on EU institutional financing would also fall under the restrictions.
Looking ahead, the consultancy warns that planned revisions to the EU Cybersecurity Act could significantly broaden the scope of the policy. If solar inverters and storage PCS are classified as critical infrastructure under the revised legislation, the restrictions could apply to all projects regardless of their source of funding.
“This ban represents a meaningful shift, around 4 to 5 GW per year of demand moving away from Chinese vendors through 2030,” said Juan Monge, principal analyst at Wood Mackenzie. “But it is important to keep that in context: roughly 80% of European solar and storage demand flows through private and nationally funded channels, where Chinese inverter dominance will remain intact for now. The real questions now are how the Commission will update the EU Cybersecurity Act to treat solar inverters as critical infrastructure and whether EU Member States will follow the Commission’s lead and extend these restrictions to their own national funding programmes. If they do, the scale of disruption changes considerably.”
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