The China Mono Premium, the OPIS assessment for mono-grade polysilicon used in N-type ingot production, fell 2.12% week on week to CNY 32.286 ($4.75)/kg, or CNY 0.068/W, according to the OPIS Global Solar Markets Report released on July 7.
According to market participants, a leading polysilicon producer recently concluded sales agreements with a key downstream customer at about CNY 32/kg. The deal has since become the benchmark for subsequent negotiations involving genuine downstream demand, with most transactions referencing this price level. Smaller suppliers, however, have generally been negotiating at discounts below the benchmark to secure orders.
Industry participants broadly agreed that China’s polysilicon sector has once again entered a phase of increasing production. According to the Silicon Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNMIA), domestic output is expected to reach approximately 93,000 MT in June, up from around 85,000 MT in May. Market sources expect production to continue rising over the next two months, potentially pushing monthly output above 110,000 MT by August.
One market observer said monthly polysilicon production had remained below 100,000 MT only in 2026, and that a rise above 110,000 MT in August would effectively return output to 2025 levels.
Another industry source said the seasonal rise in output during China’s hydropower-rich rainy season had been widely anticipated. Although monthly production may fall back below 100,000 MT around October or November, total output during the rainy season is still expected to increase by another 50,000-60,000 MT, adding supply that will continue to keep polysilicon prices below production costs.
Against this backdrop, China released three mandatory national energy consumption and energy efficiency standards covering key segments of the photovoltaic manufacturing value chain, including polysilicon, wafers, modules and inverters. Published on China’s National Public Service Platform for Standards Information, the standards will become mandatory on Jan. 1, 2027.
For Siemens-process polysilicon, the new standards set maximum energy consumption thresholds of 5.0 kgce/kg, 5.5 kgce/kg and 6.4 kgce/kg for Grades 1, 2 and 3, respectively. For fluidized bed reactor (FBR) granular polysilicon, the corresponding thresholds are 3.6 kgce/kg, 4.0 kgce/kg and 5.0 kgce/kg.
Market participants generally believe the new standards will accelerate the phase-out of outdated, energy-intensive production capacity and help alleviate the solar industry’s prolonged oversupply, with some estimates suggesting that up to 30% of existing capacity could eventually be affected.
However, several industry sources cautioned that the standards alone are unlikely to materially rebalance market fundamentals in the near term. One polysilicon producer said that, even under strict enforcement, the standards would primarily affect facilities commissioned before around 2018. Because China’s major wave of polysilicon capacity expansion occurred after that period, nearly 2 million MT/year of production capacity would still remain operational under the new requirements. This would be enough, in theory, to support approximately 900 GW of annual module production. As a result, the source said, structural oversupply is likely to persist despite the tighter regulatory framework.
OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides energy prices, news, data, and analysis on gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG/NGL, coal, metals, and chemicals, as well as renewable fuels and environmental commodities. It acquired pricing data assets from Singapore Solar Exchange in 2022 and now publishes the OPIS APAC Solar Weekly Report.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own, and do not necessarily reflect those held by pv magazine.
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