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Moves by the Trump administration might not have been able to smother solar growth outright, but the administration is certainly making a good effort. Between the results of the Sec. 232 trade investigation on the polysilicon industry and the ban on Chonese inverters, every effort is being made to make solar uncompetitive vis a vis gas powered power. The Trump presidency, famously skeptical of green energy, has pulled every tool at iots disposal to achieve their ends of smothering solar and wind energy.
For now, each imported solar component consisting of polysilicon, namely wafers, cells and finished panels is set to be slapped with a 15% tariff, regardless of country of origin. The tariffs will begin in 120 days, or Dec. 4, 2026.
The US has also set minimum import prices (MIPs) for polysilicon and its derivatives as follows:
The Inverter Shock
With the market heavily reliant on imported power inverters, the United States (US) solar market is now shifting manufacturers’ plans to meet new FCC rules banning new foreign solar inverter products from approval and sale. Wood Mackenzie Research stated that, according to manufacturers’ plans, more than 100 GWac of US PV/PCS inverter manufacturing capacity is expected to be added by the end of 2027.
If these projects materialize, owners can have safe alternatives, albeit at a premium price, according to Wood Mackenzie’s analysis. Chinese vendor dominance has grown in recent years, comprising nearly 50% of the US inverter market share in 2024 and 2025.
Over the past ten years, more than 200 GWac of PV inverters have been delivered for commercial and industrial, as well as utility-scale, projects in the US. More than 90% of these products were imported, with more than 70 GW coming from Chinese-headquartered manufacturers, mostly delivered from factories in Southeast Asia.
A supply chain shift will have consequences, raising average inverter prices in the US in 2027 as procurement moves away from lower-cost foreign products toward domestic alternatives that carry higher costs for parts, labor, and manufacturing.
Over the longer term, Wood Mackenzie expects prices to moderate as domestic manufacturing scales up and competition increases. However, the phase-out of 45X manufacturing production tax credits from 2030 onwards will add renewed upward pressure, particularly for residential and commercial inverter segments.
But in 2027, with both solar module and inverter prices rising, overall solar prices are expected to rise at least 40% or more, which could finally achieve what no amopunt of browbeating has managed so far -a drop or reduction in capacity additions.
Shedding light on the effect of the US’s reliance on foreign inverters, Joe Shangraw, Research Analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said, “The FCC’s intent here is clear. The US government determined that the US’s reliance on foreign inverters poses a national security risk, citing both cybersecurity and economic concerns. But the ban’s current definition of ‘power inverters’, focused on wireless communications, leaves real questions about how broadly it will apply, particularly for utility-scale central inverters that operate over wired connections.”
Shangraw, Research Analyst at Wood Mackenzie, explained, “Future guidance from the FCC will be crucial to understanding the full extent of this ban. Leading manufacturers are notifying clients that they believe their products will not fall under the scope of this ban, while project owners are concerned that their existing inverters could be blocked from receiving critical firmware updates.”
“The price premium for domestic inverters is a real consideration for project owners, but it provides supply chain certainty from not only this FCC ban, but from any future policy that could further restrict imports,” Shangraw added. “If this proves to be a major market shift, the US is better positioned now to meet new domestic demand than ever. We forecast the domestic PV/PCS inverter manufacturing market will be able to deliver more than 100 GWac of capacity by the end of 2027.”
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