⚡ Quick Read
India is on track to achieve a record-breaking 50 GW DC of solar installations in 2026, according to the latest analysis from Wood Mackenzie. This surge in capacity addition, which surpasses the previous record of 49 GW DC set in 2025, is primarily fueled by the industry’s race to meet the June deadline for the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers-II (ALMM-II) mandate. While the policy is a cornerstone of India’s push for a self-reliant solar supply chain, it has simultaneously triggered a significant supply crunch in the domestic cell manufacturing sector.
The first half of 2026 saw India add 34 GW DC of solar capacity, representing a 38% increase compared to the same period in 2025. This accelerated build-out was driven by developers rushing to complete projects before the ALMM-II requirements—which mandate the use of modules produced from domestically manufactured cells for government-supported projects—took full effect. Furthermore, the phased reduction of waivers for inter-state transmission charges, which dropped from 75% to 50% for projects commissioned after July 2026, provided additional impetus for early commissioning.
However, the supply chain landscape is shifting. While direct cell imports from China have decreased, India’s reliance has pivoted toward Southeast Asia, with Indonesian cell imports nearly tripling in early 2026. In the first five months of the year, India imported 5 GW of wafers and 20 GW of cells. Wood Mackenzie notes that the country’s 14 GW of new cell manufacturing capacity currently under construction is critical; any delays here risk deepening import reliance and driving system prices further upward.
EPC contractors and solar developers are entering a challenging transition period. The mismatch between module demand and domestic cell production capacity is expected to keep supply tight through 2027. With cell production projected to reach only 29 GW next year against an average annual module demand of 50 GW, developers must account for higher procurement costs in their project bids. The potential imposition of additional anti-dumping duties of up to 30% on Chinese-origin cells, as recommended by the DGTR, further complicates the pricing outlook for developers relying on imported components.
The industry expects a slowdown in installations in H2 2026 as the initial rush subsides and supply constraints weigh on project timelines. However, the MNRE’s decision to waive the ALMM-II mandate for projects nearing completion, combined with existing waivers for net metering and open access projects until December 31, 2026, offers some relief. As the India renewable energy sector continues its aggressive expansion, the focus will remain on scaling domestic cell manufacturing to meet the 2029 target of 130 GW of capacity, ensuring that the country’s long-term energy transition remains both cost-effective and resilient.
Aditya Pathre is the Founder of MVApulse and covers India’s renewable energy sector, including solar, wind, battery energy storage systems (BESS), green hydrogen, transmission infrastructure, renewable energy policy and competitive bidding. His reporting focuses on project developments, market trends, government policies and energy transition across India.
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