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Solar panels typically remain operational for decades, but the rapid expansion of photovoltaic capacity means increasingly large numbers will soon reach the end of their useful lives.
The global solar boom could leave behind as much as 402 million tonnes (443 million tons) of discarded photovoltaic panels by 2060, creating a waste crisis that threatens to undermine the clean-energy transition.
The warning comes from researchers in China, Australia, and Sweden, who examined how different regions could manage the rapidly growing stream of retired panels.
The study found that recycling this waste could produce up to $935.5 billion in cumulative net economic benefits while preventing billions of tonnes of emissions.
However, researchers warned that poorer countries could carry a disproportionate environmental burden without access to recycling technology, infrastructure, and investment.
Solar panels typically remain operational for decades, but the rapid expansion of photovoltaic capacity means increasingly large numbers will soon reach the end of their useful lives.
The researchers estimate that cumulative global PV waste could reach between 297 million and 402 million tonnes by 2060.
High-income regions are expected to dominate solar waste generation until around 2040. After that, upper-middle-income countries are likely to take the lead, with China emerging as the largest individual contributor.
China alone could produce between 112.8 million and 160.5 million tonnes of discarded panels by 2060, accounting for as much as 39.9 percent of the global total. India could generate another 26.8 million to 35.2 million tonnes.
“Solar power is essential to the transition to a low-carbon energy system, but we cannot ignore what happens to solar panels at the end of life,” said study co-author Jian Zuo from Adelaide University.
“If we plan for recycling now, this growing waste stream can become a valuable source of materials rather than an environmental burden,” he added.
The team evaluated 1,708 recycling scenarios covering 32 regions. Its model incorporated recycling methods, changing material prices, international trade, technological development, and government subsidies.
Solar panels contain recoverable materials such as silicon, silver, copper, aluminum, and tellurium.
They can also contain hazardous metals, including lead and cadmium, which may pose environmental risks when panels are improperly dumped or processed.
The analysis found that combining recycling technologies suited to individual regions with outsourced processing could generate between $529.1 billion and $935.5 billion in cumulative net benefits by 2060.
This approach could also avoid up to 3.32 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions.
Outsourcing waste to countries with advanced recycling facilities may lower costs and emissions, but it could also concentrate profits in wealthier and more technologically developed markets.
Low-income regions may consequently receive only a marginal share of the economic gains.
“The cheapest or most efficient recycling pathway globally is not necessarily the fairest,” Zuo said.
“If developing regions are left without the technology, infrastructure or investment needed to recycle solar panels, they risk missing out on the economic benefits while potentially carrying more of the environmental burden.”
The researchers proposed gradually declining subsidies as one possible solution.
Financial support would initially help recycling industries develop before being reduced as recovered materials and improving technologies make operations commercially viable.
The study was published in the journal Nature.
Atharva is a full-time content writer with a post-graduate degree in media & amp; entertainment and a graduate degree in electronics & telecommunications. He has written in the sports and technology domains respectively. In his leisure time, Atharva loves learning about digital marketing and watching soccer matches. His main goal behind joining Interesting Engineering is to learn more about how the recent technological advancements are helping human beings on both societal and individual levels in their daily lives.
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