Global PV installations are on track to reach 638 GW in 2026, according to analysis from solar and storage technical advisory firm Intertek CEA.
The company’s PV Supply, Technology and Policy Report for Q2 2026 predicts a decline on last year’s installation figures before resuming growth to 2030.
It says this year’s downturn is driven entirely by China, which is facing market stagnation, while most other regions of the world are set to see either flat or accelerated growth.
The report adds that structural oversupply is “severe and persistent” across the solar supply chain, with manufacturing capacity across all stages exceeding projected 2026 demand by wide margins.
Polysilicon capacity stands at approximately 2,034 GW against 638 GW of installations, according to figures from the report, while module capacity of around 1,908 GW leaves an excess of more than 1.2 TW.
Intertek CEA’s PV Price Forecasting Report for Q2 2026 adds that Chinese module prices are set to continuing rising in 2026 through to 2027, as suppliers “push for margin expansion and material cost passthrough.”
It also says US module prices wil remain elevated as the market “awaits clarity on the tariff structure likely to emerge from the polysilicon Section 232 investigation”, while Indian module pricing through 2026 and 2027 will stay exposed to Chinese input costs.
From 2028 onwards, Intertek CEA is expecting prices to decline, citing market maturity and low but stable margins.
The report adds that regionally-integrated production costs range from under $0.12/W to over $0.37/W, with US manufacturing subsidies narrowing the US-to-non-China cost gap to just $0.01 to $0.03/W.
Indian cell and module assembly, as well as module assembly in the southeast Asian market, is predicted to come within $0.01 to $0.03/W of Chinese prices “in time”, the report continues, but EU module assembly is forecast not to close its price gap with other markets.
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