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Bringing solar modules into the United States will cease to be financially sensible under the newly imposed Section 232 tariffs on polysilicon-based goods, as stated by Intertek CEA. This evaluation was presented during a webinar held on August 27, 2026, by the quality assurance and supply chain services firm.
Christian Roselund, who oversees policy research at Intertek CEA, indicated that he anticipates U.S. module producers will take the lead in the market come 2027, driven by the elevated costs of imported solar PV modules resulting from Section 232. The tariff framework sets minimum import prices (MIP) for polysilicon, silicon ingots and wafers, solar cells, and modules, along with an additional 15% tariff. The MIP stands at US$0.38 per watt for modules and US$0.22 per watt for cells.
Even with the projected dominance of U.S. module manufacturers starting in 2027, Roselund noted that their profit margins are likely to be squeezed by the higher expenses associated with importing cells. At present, the U.S. faces a gap of roughly 50GW between its solar cell and module production capacities, with about 11GW of cells available to support over 60GW of PV module capacity. Consequently, most module-only manufacturers will keep depending on imports, which will erode their margins and push module prices upward.
A comparable scenario is expected for cell-only producers such as ES Foundry or Suniva, as they will need to cover the cost of imported silicon wafers at the MIP of US$100 per kilogram. These cell makers will then increase their prices when selling to module factories, thereby transferring expenses along the supply chain.
The notable exception lies with vertically integrated firms, which are positioned to gain the most from the Section 232 duties. Such companies are scarce in the current U.S. solar market. Hanwha Qcells manufactures both solar PV cells and modules, as do T1 Energy, Toyo Solar, and several others, yet the data reveal that cell and especially wafer production trails module assembly considerably.
These companies, whether they have U.S.-based cell production or captive cell facilities overseas, benefit from the lower MIPs at earlier stages of the supply chain. There are greater advantages to importing wafers at roughly US$0.12 per watt or cells at US$0.22 per watt, while completing the remaining manufacturing steps within the U.S.
Intertek CEA currently reports that imported modules in the U.S. are priced around US$0.46 per watt, while U.S. modules using foreign cells range from US$0.38 to US$0.44 per watt. Modules with U.S.-made cells are priced at US$0.45 to US$0.50 per watt, reflecting the scarcity of domestic cells, and fully domestic supply chains, which are confined to output from Corning and Hemlock, sit near US$0.50 per watt due to their protection from future tariffs.
Joseph C. Johnson, associate director for market intelligence at Intertek CEA, characterized these prices as a modest market overreaction to the introduction of new costs. They may therefore adjust downward over time, but the overarching direction is evident: U.S. module prices are climbing, which favors a limited set of well-established players.
The webinar also touched on the potential for more competitive tactics among manufacturers as the industry adjusts to the new circumstances, with some entities discovering methods to offer modules at lower prices. This trend is particularly relevant heading into the 2030s, when CEA projects that U.S. module manufacturing capacity will far outstrip annual demand. Solar installations are anticipated to stay relatively steady through 2030, whereas module capacity could surpass 115GW, and even cell capacity might exceed deployment levels based on existing credible expansion plans.
Ultimately, the considerable uncertainty surrounding the Section 232 policy and other elements of the U.S. solar market discourages investment in new upstream manufacturing, according to Roselund. He emphasized that this policy is not fixed, as the Secretary of Commerce retains the authority to modify the MIPs over time in response to market conditions, potentially leading to unpredictable fluctuations.
Additionally, the U.S. is confronting new restrictions on power equipment such as inverters and transformers, along with various other tariffs that compound the Section 232 duties, and the expiration of tax credits designed to promote solar adoption. Establishing new cell or wafer facilities can entail investments of up to US$165 million per GW and several years of construction before becoming operational. Roselund observed that by the time such facilities come online, the 45X Advanced Manufacturing tax credit would be nearing its expiration, thereby eliminating a key incentive for domestic content and cell production in the U.S.
The Section 232 update is poised to substantially affect the U.S. solar supply chain, a topic slated for deeper examination at the PV CellTech USA conference scheduled for October 13-14, 2026. The event will cover the policy and investment environment for U.S. solar manufacturing across the supply chain, featuring speakers like Mike Carr, executive director of the Solar Energy Manufacturers for America (SEMA) Coalition.
Interactive table based on the Store Companies dataset for this report.
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Major US solar manufacturer
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Former Cree LED business
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