The Global Polysilicon Marker (GPM), the OPIS benchmark for polysilicon produced outside China, was assessed at $19.227/kg, or $0.040/W, unchanged from the previous week, according to the OPIS Global Solar Markets Report released on Sept. 1.
Global polysilicon market participants said the market is currently in a state of temporary stagnation, particularly reflected in reduced transaction activity.
A source at a major integrated manufacturer said global polysilicon demand is currently very weak, partly due to competition from compliant, traceable Chinese polysilicon under the U.S. Section 232 framework. The source said global prices cannot realistically fall to the $7/kg level of Chinese traceable material, adding that buyers have little reason to pay close to global producers’ costs when compliant Chinese material is available far cheaper.
Another market participant agreed, noting that even when suppliers indicate that prices are “negotiable,” buyers still lack sufficient demand. Price stability will depend largely on how strictly U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) scrutinizes the supply chains of imported products, the source said.
Reports of heightened U.S. customs scrutiny have continued to emerge. A White House report released in late August highlighted an AI-powered “Detective Border” system targeting Chinese-origin goods routed through third countries, while trade sources said CBP is also examining electricity and water consumption at overseas manufacturing facilities to compare reported production volumes and product values with facility capacity, potentially shifting enforcement from individual customs declarations toward broader supply-chain verification and making transshipment-based origin circumvention more difficult.
One market observer said any near-term bearish pressure on global prices should prove temporary, with the longer-term outlook for non-China polysilicon remaining positive as supply-chain diversification continues across the solar industry.
Meanwhile, the China Mono Premium, the OPIS assessment for mono-grade polysilicon used in n-type ingot production, was unchanged week on week at CNY 37.389 ($5.56)/kg, or CNY 0.079/W, but remains over 17% higher than in early August.
China’s polysilicon market continued to follow the pattern seen over the past two weeks. Manufacturers were still seeking to push prices higher, with some targeting above CNY 40/kg for new orders, but buyer acceptance continued to vary depending on existing inventories and downstream order conditions, according to trading sources.
One upstream source said the foundation for this round of price increases remains very weak, as some specialized wafer manufacturers had stocked up ahead of the latest price increase and therefore had contributed little to recent transactions. Meanwhile, buyers with long-term supply agreements settled at pre-increase prices for September delivery continued to transact at the original levels.
Another industry source said some buyers facing shortages and needing urgent deliveries, particularly those also requiring traceability documentation, had little choice but to accept around CNY 43/kg. However, overall volumes were limited, and the transactions were largely driven by a short-term spike in demand.
The futures market also pointed to limited confidence in the rally. One industry participant noted that September-delivery contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were trading at only CNY 37-38/kg, below the elevated spot offers, prompting some buyers to source September material through futures.
Market participants said production may be approaching a point where monthly output needs to be cut. According to the Silicon Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNMIA), China’s polysilicon output has risen for three consecutive months, from 92,900 metric tons (MT) in June to an expected level of more than 110,000 MT in August. Participants expect the growth to become increasingly difficult to sustain, with the price rally widely questioned.
One market participant said the onset of the dry season from October, which will reduce hydropower availability and raise production costs in some regions, could prompt manufacturers to lower operating rates. With buyers still unable to absorb large volumes above CNY 40/kg, manufacturers are unlikely to keep increasing production and inventories indiscriminately, the source added.
OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides energy prices, news, data, and analysis on gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG/NGL, coal, metals, and chemicals, as well as renewable fuels and environmental commodities. It acquired pricing data assets from Singapore Solar Exchange in 2022 and now publishes the OPIS APAC Solar Weekly Report.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own, and do not necessarily reflect those held by pv magazine.
This content is protected by copyright and may not be reused. If you want to cooperate with us and would like to reuse some of our content, please contact: [email protected].
Comments
Please login to comment
Monday, October 26, 2026
10:30 am – 11:30 am CEST, Berlin, Paris, Madrid
Thursday, September 10, 2026
2:00 pm – 3:00 pm CEST, Berlin, Paris, Madrid
Tuesday, September 15, 2026
5:00 pm – 6:00 pm CEST, Berlin, Paris, Madrid
A two-day conference in Austin, Texas, bringing together leaders in US solar manufacturing, equipment specification, and factory execution.
Thursday, October 7, 2026
11:00 am – 12:30 pm CEST, Berlin, Paris, Madrid
pv magazine USA hosts its multi-day virtual event on U.S. solar and energy storage, covering domestic manufacturing, distributed energy and the growing role of solar-plus-storage in meeting AI-driven power demand.
You have no items in your basket.
