A new report by CareEdge projects that India’s solar module manufacturing capacity will reach around 250 GW by FY30, supported by nearly 90 GW of cell manufacturing capacity and more than 30 GW of ingot and wafer manufacturing capacity.
The report highlights that India’s solar PV manufacturing ecosystem is gradually moving towards backward integration, which is expected to reduce import dependence, strengthen supply-chain resilience and support long-term self-reliance.
Several large players such as Tata Power, Adani Solar, Waaree and other domestic manufacturers have announced plans to set up ingot and wafer manufacturing capacities in phases.
FY25 marked an important structural milestone with the commissioning of India’s first ingot and wafer manufacturing facility, with an initial capacity of 2 GW. The country is also at the cusp of commencing domestic polysilicon production, with major fully integrated manufacturing facilities expected to come online between FY26 and FY28.
Backward integration gains momentum
Despite the progress in solar PV manufacturing, domestic cell manufacturing currently meets only about 25–30% of demand, resulting in a sizeable gap in the upstream value chain. Consequently, India remains dependent on imports, particularly from China, for solar cells. This exposes the sector to supply-chain disruptions, price volatility and trade-related risks.
CareEdge noted that Chinese manufacturers continue to benefit from deep vertical integration across polysilicon, ingot, wafer, cell and module, which enables them to maintain lower cost structures. To address this gap, Indian manufacturers are increasingly investing in domestic cell manufacturing. Further, the applicability of ALMM-II, which mandates the use of domestically manufactured cells and modules, is expected to make integrated cell-to-module manufacturing critical for policy compliance, cost stability and participation in utility-scale and government-supported projects.
“India’s integrated solar manufacturing build-out is anticipated to require cumulative capex of more than INR 80,000 crore by FY30 across modules, cells and ingot-wafer capacity. However, the actual requirement may vary depending on global market conditions, equipment costs, technology shifts and supply chain dynamics” stated Nitu Singh, Associate Director, Care Analytics and Advisory Pvt Ltd.
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