India’s residential rooftop solar market could see annual installations of 9 GW to 15 GW between 2026 and 2030, according to a new report by the Indian Solar Manufacturers Association (ISMA), with the PM Surya Ghar: Muft Bijli Yojana expected to remain a key driver of demand.
In its Market Sizing and Growth Outlook report, ISMA estimates the total residential rooftop solar opportunity at around 132 GW, of which around 115 GW remains to be deployed. The projected installation pipeline could support sustained demand for solar cells, modules, inverters and balance-of-system components, according to the report.
As on June 30, 2026, India had installed 30.1 GW of grid-connected rooftop solar capacity, with PM Surya Ghar: Muft Bijli Yojana adding 13.5 GW as of July 2026 and reshaping the residential market. The total residential rooftop solar installed capacity stands at around 17 GW.
PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana has emerged as a key driver of residential rooftop PV adoption, while also supporting demand for domestically manufactured DCR modules, creating business opportunities across the rooftop solar value chain—including manufacturers, EPC companies, installers, system integrators and other service providers—and contributing to employment generation across the ecosystem.
ISMA’s assessment indicates that around 8 GW of the potential residential solar market pays for itself without subsidy—mostly large consumption homes in states where power is expensive. The rest still needs support under PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana.
The report also highlights the “Affordability Effect,” showing that rooftop solar adoption is increasingly expanding beyond states where its economics are naturally strongest. PM Surya Ghar has helped bring rooftop solar within reach of households across larger residential markets, demonstrating the role of policy support in broadening adoption and creating a more sustained demand base for India’s domestic solar manufacturing ecosystem.
“PM Surya Ghar has played an important role in expanding residential rooftop solar adoption, particularly in markets where project economics remain challenging,” said Amit Manohar, Secretary General, ISMA. “As the current programme approaches March 2027, providing early clarity on its next phase, including consideration of PM Surya Ghar 2.0, preferably by December 2026, would help maintain market continuity and provide greater visibility to consumers and industry stakeholders.”
The report notes that policy continuity beyond March 2027 will be important to sustain demand and provide manufacturers and other stakeholders with the visibility required to plan investments, capacity expansion, and domestic supply chains.
The ISMA estimate is based on national residential electricity-consumption, government housing-suitability surveys and distribution-utility tariffs.
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