Solar Media Market Research senior analyst Josh Cornes weighs this year’s progress in the UK solar market.
September 16, 2026
In this contributed article, Solar Media Market Research senior analyst Josh Cornes discusses how 2026 has played out so far in solar.
The UK solar market in 2026 is showing strong investment activity and accelerating construction yet faces mounting challenges from planning bottlenecks and grid connection uncertainty. Here's what's happening across the sector.
Planning submissions have experienced a sharp decline in 2026, with only 4GWp submitted so far this year—down significantly from 12.5GWp by this time last year. Of the 2026 submissions, 2.7GWp are Nationally Significant Infrastructure Projects (NSIPs), reflecting the industry's strategic pivot toward larger-scale developments.
This slowdown follows an extraordinary surge, with a record-breaking 10GWp submitted between March and August 2026 alone, preceded by a huge influx in December 2025. The dramatic fluctuation was due to developers having front-loaded applications ahead of grid reform deadlines.
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Despite the submission slowdown, planning approvals remain relatively strong, with 7.5GWp approved across just over 100 sites so far in 2026. However, this is down from 9.1GWp approved by this time last year across over 180 sites. The numbers reveal a clear trend: the UK solar market is consolidating around larger-scale projects.
The shift toward NSIPs is particularly pronounced, with five already approved in 2026, bringing the total number of approved NSIPs to 20.
The local planning process is becoming increasingly lengthy. The average approval time for projects greater than 5 MWp at the local planning authority level has reached 60 weeks in 2026—an all-time high and a significant increase from the 51-week average in 2025. Whether this stems from the massive submission influx in December 2025, the record 10GWp submitted between March and August 2026, growing local opposition, or simply larger average asset sizes remains unclear.
More concerning is the refusal rate at local planning authority level, which continues to hover around 23-25%. This worryingly high rejection rate poses significant risk to developers who must now meet strict milestones to secure grid connections following grid reform.
A total of 368 projects across 370 sites have now received CfDs from Allocation Rounds 4 through 7, with 65% of assets that have entered construction since the start of 2023 backed by CfD agreements. CfDs clearly remain the most common route-to-market strategy.
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However, cracks are beginning to appear. Fifteen projects have terminated their CfDs, while others have refused awards after being offered them. Notably, four of these projects are currently under construction and one is already operational, demonstrating that viable alternatives exist. Other projects appear to have been mothballed completely, having failed to submit for grid reform.
The low strike prices achieved in AR7, with similar levels reported for the upcoming AR8, are prompting developers to explore alternative revenue structures. Corporate Power Purchase Agreements (CPPAs) are emerging as an increasingly attractive option. Major players including Severn Trent, Liberty Global, and Atrato have stated their preference for the CPPA route over CfDs (the first 2 having terminated CfDs), valuing the flexibility and potentially higher returns these agreements can offer.
Figure 1: Site count and capacity per CfD round, as well as eligible projects for AR8.
Merger and acquisition (M&A) activity continues at a strong pace, with over 100 assets totalling 6.2GWp having changed hands since the start of 2026. This sustained activity reflects continued investor confidence in UK solar fundamentals despite infrastructure challenges.
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Joint ventures are becoming increasingly common. A recent example is the merger between Aura Power and Verdant Energy, which includes Aura Power joining the CVC DIF 7 asset portfolio acquired from Enso Energy. This portfolio includes operational sites, including Cowley, Bulphan Fen, and Tebworth Solar Farms, as well as under-construction projects at Hasland, Bramford, and Walpole Bank.
Perhaps the most significant recent transaction is Qualitas Energy's major acquisition of Cero Generation, which includes an impressive 1.3GWp of approved or under-construction solar assets. This deal underscores the premium investors are willing to pay for de-risked, shovel-ready projects.
Over the past three years, 8.1GWp of solar has begun construction, with 4GWp now completed. Currently, 4.7GWp remains under construction as some assets from 2023 are moving slower than originally expected.
The period between July 2025 and April 2026 saw a notable slowdown, with only 1.8GWp starting construction. This hesitation was directly attributable to grid uncertainty—developers lacking firm connection dates faced financial risks in commencing construction without guaranteed export capacity.
The situation changed dramatically in Q3 2026, when 1GWp progressed into construction in the quarter alone, with more projects expected to start shortly. This sudden acceleration followed developers finally receiving firm 2027 connection dates, triggering a frenzy to assign EPC contracts and procure equipment.
However, a new bottleneck is already emerging: 2028 projects. Although all transmission-connected solar projects with Gate 2 Phase 1 notifications should theoretically have received their firm connection dates, the reality is that most have not. If transmission-connected projects haven't received dates, distribution-connected projects likely haven't either, setting the stage for another round of significant delays.
Strong M&A activity, diversifying route-to-market strategies, and accelerating construction indicate investor confidence. However, lengthening approval times, high refusal rates, and recurring grid connection uncertainty pose serious threats. The sector's ability to maintain momentum will depend on streamlining the planning process and providing developers with firm, reliable grid connection dates well in advance of construction.
All the data above is taken from Solar Media Market Research’s analysis, which can be accessed here. To book a demo and access the data, please email [email protected].
Read more about:
Josh Cornes
Senior market analyst, Solar Media, Solar Media Market Research
Josh Cornes joined Solar Media in May 2022. He's a Senior Market Research Analyst who specialises in the UK Solar and Wind sectors, tracking all projects within development to create informative reports and write data driven articles on UK trends and market sizing.
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