Brazil imported 5.48 GW of PV modules in the first half of 2026, down 48% from 10.57 GW in the same period of 2025, according to a survey by consultancy Greener. The contraction reflects a sharp slowdown in demand for PV equipment, particularly from utility-scale projects.
Imports declined year on year in nearly every month of the six-month period. They fell 71.6% in March and 60.7% in April. May was the only exception, with imports rising 6.5% from the same month of 2025.
In absolute terms, Brazil imported about 5.1 GW less module capacity in the first half of 2026 than it did a year earlier. Monthly volumes fell from 2.33 GW to 1.12 GW in January, from 2.19 GW to 1.02 GW in February, and from 2.03 GW to 576.7 MW in March.
The contraction was particularly severe in the centralized generation segment. Module imports for utility-scale projects fell 82%, from 2.3 GW in the first half of 2025 to 430 MW in the same period of 2026.
Luiza Bertazzoli, head of market intelligence at Greener, said curtailment is the main factor behind the decline.
“In centralized generation, curtailment is the dominant factor today,” Bertazzoli said. “It reduces projected project revenue and increases the perceived risk of new investment.”
She said the supply-demand imbalance is also linked to the large number of project authorizations granted during the rush to meet tariff-discount deadlines in recent years. Stronger-than-expected growth in distributed micro- and minigeneration has also increased competition for grid capacity.
Greener said generation curtailment is undermining the profitability of utility-scale projects and discouraging purchases of new equipment.
The downturn was less pronounced in the distributed generation segment, where module imports fell 39%, from 8.2 GW to about 5 GW.
Despite the decline, distributed generation’s share of module imports rose from 78% in the first half of 2025 to 92% in the same period of 2026. The share attributed to centralized generation fell from 22% to 8%.
Greener attributed the distributed-generation slowdown to several factors. The market is entering a more mature phase after years of rapid expansion, while high interest rates, declining use of sales financing and grid-connection constraints are weighing on demand.
Bertazzoli said the proportion of sales involving financing has fallen from 57% in 2021 to 41% in 2026, according to a Greener survey.
Grid-connection refusals by electricity distributors due to reverse power flow are another obstacle. The problem is particularly acute in Minas Gerais, where 79% of system integrators reported encountering it in 2025, compared with a national average of 33%, according to data cited by Bertazzoli.
Remote distributed generation is also being affected by the gradual introduction of the TUSD distribution tariff’s “Fio B” component. The applicable share reached 60% in 2026, reducing the economic benefit of generating electricity at one location and using credits to offset consumption elsewhere.
The decline in import volumes coincided with higher equipment prices. The weighted average free-on-board price of modules rose 12.9% in the first half of 2026, from $0.0802/W in the same period of 2025 to $0.0906/W.
The increase was concentrated in the second quarter. The average price reached $0.1042/W in May, the highest level recorded during the period and 29% above the January price of $0.0816/W.
Greener attributed the increase to China’s phaseout of a 9% export incentive for PV modules beginning in April, which placed upward pressure on equipment costs in the international market.
The consultancy expects manufacturers to pass only a limited portion of the increase on to buyers in the second half of the year.
“The first half of the year already absorbed the impact of the end of the Chinese subsidy for module exports,” Bertazzoli said. “It is a permanent change, but the pass-through to end buyers is likely to remain limited, as China’s excess production capacity pressures manufacturers to absorb part of the cost within their margins.”
Bertazzoli said polysilicon prices began to rise slightly in August, following the introduction of a Chinese policy aimed at curbing overproduction. The increase could put further upward pressure on module prices.
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