Northwestern and southern India and Pakistan saw above-average solar irradiance during the 2026 summer monsoon, while August tropical depressions reduced irradiance in eastern and central India, according to analysis using the Solcast API. Fortunately, the majority of India’s utility-scale PV capacity is in the regions with favourable conditions. After late-August flood damage in Nepal, India began exporting electricity there, supported in part by Indian PV generation.
The monsoon arrived slowly in June and rainfall has been below average in the sunnier regions. Early June–September analysis, using forecasts out to the end of September, puts irradiance around 5% above the long-term average in those areas, whilst August saw up to 10% above average. The weaker monsoon is consistent with the strong El Niño that has developed throughout 2027. These effects are also influenced by a marginal positive Indian Ocean Dipole, an Indian Ocean temperature pattern that can counteract El Niño’s influence.
Accumulated irradiance at Jodhpur, near Rajasthan’s PV-producing areas, is provisionally tracking as the second-highest year since 2007. Bahawalpur, near solar installations in Pakistan’s Punjab province, is tracking at the top of its comparison years since 2007.
Eastern and central India followed a different course. Several tropical depressions, or low-pressure systems formed over the Bay of Bengal in August and moved northwest across land, carrying cloud and heavy rain. August irradiance in the affected areas was 20–30% below the monthly average. The provisional June–September estimate is around 10% below average across Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Odisha, eastern Madhya Pradesh and
Maharashtra.
Spot analysis of time-series data in impacted locations demonstrates the impact this has for local solar production, revealing the impacts of the onset of the monsoon. Seen below, Nagpur started above average after the late monsoon onset, but August rain pushed its seasonal total below average. Abikapur, in Chhattisgarh, is tracking toward its lowest accumulated summer-monsoon irradiance in the comparison record after an average start.
Less PV capacity is deployed in these eastern areas than in India’s main solar-producing regions in the northwest. The sharp local irradiance decline therefore had a more limited bearing on national PV production potential than the August irradiance data alone might suggest.
Late-August floods in Nepal and Tibet, attributed glacial collapse, damaged 12 hydropower plants, PV facilities and transmission lines. Nepal’s generating capacity fell by 10%. Normally an exporter of hydropower to India during the summer monsoon, Nepal instead began importing electricity from India after the damage. Indian PV generation supported those exports, alongside the favourable irradiance across India’s main solar-producing
regions.
Solcast produces these figures by tracking clouds and aerosols at 1-2km resolution globally, using satellite data and proprietary AI/ML algorithms. This data is used to drive irradiance models, enabling Solcast to calculate irradiance at high resolution, with typical bias of less than 2%, and also cloud-tracking forecasts. This data is used by more than 350 companies managing over 350 GW of solar assets globally.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own, and do not necessarily reflect those held by pv magazine.
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