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Wood Mackenzie forecasts indicate that off-grid solar capacity across Sub-Saharan Africa will grow by 450% between now and 2035. In its newest report, Off-grid solar PV in Sub-Saharan Africa: a multi-gigawatt growth opportunity, the consultancy characterizes off-grid solar as the region’s main electrification driver, citing a mix of declining module prices, higher diesel costs and progress in private capital.
Sohan Gwalani, Wood Mackenzie Research Analyst for Middle East and Africa Renewables, told pv magazine that ten markets are modeled in depth, with conditions varying widely from one country to another. He called this the report’s central conclusion. In countries such as Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, he said, the majority of capacity expansion stems from larger commercial, industrial and mining loads, since those locations face the highest diesel costs and the strongest economic rationale for solar.
Nigeria makes up nearly 35% of off-grid solar installations in Wood Mackenzie’s forecast. Gwalani said a large share of this growth involves existing commercial and industrial users lowering their dependence on diesel generation rather than solely delivering first-time electricity access. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, he described a combination of mining loads replacing diesel and genuine first-time rural electrification, given very low access rates. In Kenya, he said the market is transitioning from first-time access toward cost optimisation for users who already have supply, with deployment more evenly spread across smaller commercial and household systems.
Gwalani listed Zambia, Ethiopia, Ghana and Tanzania as other significant off-grid African markets. Zambia experiences mining-linked demand comparable to the Democratic Republic of the Congo, while Ethiopia’s large population and industrial ambitions underpin its market. Ghana and Tanzania each have substantial commercial and rural demand. In Ethiopia and Tanzania, smaller systems represent a far greater proportion of deployments by number, indicating a stronger focus on household and rural electricity access.
According to Gwalani, financing is the largest obstacle to achieving the 2035 forecast. He explained that African markets are constrained by the cost and availability of capital, with currency depreciation and borrowing costs that can surpass 30% making it extremely costly to finance upfront-heavy solar and storage assets in price-sensitive markets where customers have limited disposable income.
Gwalani said addressing this relies less on subsidies than on financing structures that lower the cost of capital, including blended finance and development-finance guarantees that de-risk private lending. He called inconsistent rural-electrification policy a secondary drag, adding that more predictable, long-term policy frameworks would help draw in private investment. He said the models best suited to African markets tackle currency risk, offtaker credit risk and policy uncertainty.
Development finance institutions and guarantees that absorb first-loss or currency risk work well because they enable commercial lenders to participate at acceptable returns, Gwalani said. He added that local-currency financing is essential, as dollar-denominated debt against naira or shilling revenues is where many projects encounter trouble.
Outside private capital, Gwalani highlighted solar-as-a-service or leasing models that are helping to grow the commercial and industrial segment. He said pay-as-you-go services have been transformative, serving as the backbone of the household and small-commercial market, particularly in East Africa. He also said value stacking is becoming more important, with additional revenue from appliance finance, insurance, connectivity and even carbon credits added on top of the energy sale, enhancing project economics and making more deployments bankable.
Research published by the International Energy Agency last October found that Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for eight of every ten people worldwide who lack access to electricity.
Interactive table based on the Store Companies dataset for this report.
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