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BloombergNEF has lowered its outlook for worldwide solar installations in 2026, according to pv magazine. The research group now expects 584 GW of solar capacity to be installed globally this year, a decline of 10.8% from the 655 GW recorded in 2025.
The revision marks a significant change from earlier expectations. In December 2025, BloombergNEF had projected 649 GW for 2026, and in the first quarter of 2025 it had anticipated 753 GW. The earlier 2026 figure is 29% higher than the current forecast.
The downgrade reflects a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China, which has been only partly offset by slightly faster growth elsewhere. BloombergNEF estimates China installed 383 GW in 2025 and now expects 271 GW in 2026, a 29% decline. In the group’s 2025 fourth-quarter projection, China had been forecast to install 341 GW in 2026.
Through the end of June 2026, China installed about 71.8 GW of photovoltaic capacity, down from 212.2 GW in the same period of 2025, a decline of roughly 66%. The contraction coincides with a policy shift and a new five-year plan that moves attention away from capacity and toward energy storage.
BloombergNEF CleanTech Analyst Jenny Chase attributed the deeper slowdown to saturation. She said she doubts that batteries or electric vehicles will halt the trend, adding that they would only slow it a little. In December, Chase had said growth in China could not continue at its historical breakneck pace.
When asked whether 2026 had brought any surprises in the solar industry, Chase said there had been none so far and that a major theme has been the absence of large booms. She said she does not think the situation has anything to do with Chinese politics or pricing.
Outside China, the world has slightly outperformed BloombergNEF’s projections. Deployment capacity of 272 GW in 2025 was projected to grow to 308 GW, a 13% increase. Current projections put global capacity at 313 GW deployed, within the margin of error from the end of 2025.
Growth is coming from markets including India, the Philippines, Nigeria and Malaysia. Regarding Nigeria and the Philippines, Chase noted that growth in those markets was almost entirely residential and commercial based.
This aligns with a recent report indicating that, with the pullback in utility-scale solar in China, non-utility solar is now the largest sector of global renewable energy investment.
Interactive table based on the Store Companies dataset for this report.
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World's largest monocrystalline silicon producer
Major PV manufacturer, high-efficiency cells
One of world's largest solar module producers
Leading PV module and cell manufacturer
Major LED chip and compound semiconductor producer
Global HQ in Canada, major ops in China
Major PV product manufacturer
Solar cell and module division
HJT solar cell specialist
Solar cell manufacturer
Major polysilicon and solar cell producer
Solar cell and module manufacturer
Solar cell and module producer
LED packaging and components
LED chip manufacturer
LED packaging and lighting solutions
LED packaging and components
Solar cell and module manufacturer
Solar cell producer
Crystal growth equipment and materials
Integrated circuits and LED chips
LED packaging and lighting
LED packaging and components
LED packaging and smart lighting
LED packaging and display products
LED chip technology company
LED packaging
PV manufacturing equipment
LED driver ICs and chips
LED packaging and components
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