China proposed adding 12 solar PV manufacturing technologies to its list of technologies prohibited or restricted for export on October 16. (Image: Pixabay)
China’s proposal to tighten exports of 12 solar photovoltaic (PV) manufacturing technologies could encourage India to accelerate the development of its domestic solar supply chain, including the production of wafers, ingots and solar cells, according to a report by JM Financial. The proposal, announced by China’s Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of Science and Technology on October 16, seeks to add 12 technologies used in solar PV manufacturing to the country’s Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited or Restricted from Export.
The measures cover processes involved in producing polysilicon, silicon wafers and solar cells, as well as critical equipment incorporating these technologies.
China has classified the proposed technologies under prohibited and restricted categories. Stakeholders can submit their feedback on the proposal until November 15, 2026.
JM Financial views the development as a potential catalyst for India’s efforts to reduce its reliance on imported solar manufacturing inputs. However, the brokerage cautioned that the proposal should not be interpreted as a blanket ban on all Chinese solar equipment, technology transfers or TOPCon production lines.
It said, “We view it as structurally positive for Indian solar manufacturing (may accelerate backward integration) with short-term disruption.”
China’s Proposed Curbs Could Accelerate India’s Solar Manufacturing Plans
India has been expanding its domestic solar manufacturing capacity, but its dependence on China extends beyond finished solar cells and modules. Manufacturers also rely on Chinese suppliers for specialised machinery, industrial gases, chemicals, spare parts, process software and skilled technical personnel.
Restrictions on technology exports could complicate the expansion of Indian manufacturing facilities, particularly those that depend on Chinese equipment and technical expertise. Delays in procuring machinery or accessing manufacturing know-how could affect project timelines and make capacity additions more challenging in the near term.
At the same time, the proposed restrictions could strengthen the commercial case for building a more comprehensive domestic supply chain, particularly in segments that sit further upstream from module assembly.
“The greatest opportunity lies in moving upstream, but that is where the technological and execution barriers are the highest,” JM Financial added in its report.
Solar Wafers, Ingots And Cells Could Offer New Opportunities
The report suggests that the biggest potential beneficiaries may not necessarily be India’s largest existing solar cell and module manufacturers. Instead, companies capable of expanding from module assembly into the manufacturing of solar cells, silicon wafers and ingots could be better placed to capitalise on the changing trade environment.
Moving into these upstream segments could help Indian manufacturers reduce their dependence on overseas suppliers and build greater control over their production processes.
However, establishing these capabilities requires significant investment, specialised technology and operational expertise. The proposed curbs could make access to some of these resources more difficult, meaning that companies looking to expand their manufacturing footprint may face execution challenges even as new opportunities emerge.
The eventual impact will depend on the final scope of China’s restrictions and how effectively Indian manufacturers develop alternatives to imported technologies and equipment.
Equipment Shortages Could Push Up Solar Manufacturing Costs
The proposed restrictions could also affect the economics of setting up new solar manufacturing plants in India. If Chinese equipment becomes harder to obtain, manufacturers may need to explore alternative suppliers, including European vendors, whose machinery could be more expensive.
Longer procurement timelines and higher equipment costs could increase the capital required to establish production facilities. These pressures could also delay planned capacity additions and affect the cost competitiveness of domestically manufactured solar products.
If manufacturing costs rise, Indian solar cell and module prices could come under upward pressure. This would create a challenge for manufacturers seeking to expand domestic production while keeping their products competitive against imported alternatives.
Could India Reconsider ALMM-II Rules If Solar Prices Rise?
JM Financial said a substantial increase in domestic solar product prices could prompt India to consider further easing the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers-II (ALMM-II) mandate beyond December 2026.
Any such move would depend on policy decisions and the extent of cost pressures facing the domestic solar industry. The report presents this as a possible outcome rather than a confirmed policy change.
Meanwhile, Chinese manufacturers could respond to the changing trade environment by offering more competitive prices for finished solar products, including cells and modules. Lower-priced imports could become more attractive to Indian solar project developers, particularly if locally manufactured products become significantly more expensive.
This creates a potential challenge for India’s domestic manufacturing ambitions. While restrictions on technology exports could encourage investment in local production, near-term supply constraints and higher manufacturing costs could make imported finished products more competitive.
She is working as a Chief Copy Editor at Times Now’s Business Desk, where she covers key developments in the stock market, Indian corporates across se… View More

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