India’s solar manufacturing industry could become a fully integrated global powerhouse by 2047, creating 3.23 million direct and indirect jobs, attracting $89 billion in manufacturing investment, and eliminating the country’s solar import bill, according to a report by the Indian Solar Manufacturers Association (ISMA).
The report outlines a roadmap for India to move beyond module assembly and develop domestic manufacturing capabilities across the solar value chain, from polysilicon and ingots to wafers, cells, and modules. The transition could enable India to capture a significantly larger share of the value generated by domestically manufactured solar panels while strengthening its position in global markets.
Under a current-policy scenario, ISMA projects India’s installed solar capacity to reach approximately 278 GW by 2030, approaching the 292 GW target, before rising to around 1,370 GW by 2047. The latter figure is slightly below NITI Aayog’s current-policy projection of 1,430 GW to 1,650 GW by 2050.
The Vision 2047 scenario accounts for additional electricity demand from emerging industries and infrastructure. Assuming full implementation of planned programs, ISMA estimates that India’s installed solar capacity could reach 313 GW by 2030 and approximately 2,275 GW by 2047, enough to meet nearly half of the country’s electricity demand.
To support this expansion, India’s solar PV manufacturing industry would need to achieve cumulative production capacities of approximately 3,484 GW for modules, 3,128 GW for cells, 2,630 GW for ingots and wafers, and 2,200 GW-equivalent for polysilicon by 2047.
Manufacturing capacity across the solar value chain is expected to expand rapidly, supported by government-backed projects that mandate the procurement of domestically manufactured solar products.
The expansion could create substantial employment opportunities, with total manufacturing-related jobs increasing from approximately 410,000 currently to 740,000 by 2030 and 3.23 million by 2047. Direct employment in solar PV manufacturing plants could rise from around 140,000 to 1.11 million by 2047.
The share of direct employment in cell, wafer, and polysilicon manufacturing could increase from around 10% currently to approximately one-third by 2030 and more than half by 2047. These segments would generate skilled jobs for technicians, engineers, and chemists.
The report estimates that approximately $89 billion in new solar PV manufacturing investment could be required by 2047 under the Vision 2047 scenario, equivalent to an average of $4.3 billion annually between 2027 and 2047. Nearly 70% of the investment is expected to go toward polysilicon, wafer, and cell manufacturing. India’s Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme had already attracted approximately $8.4 billion in investment as of June 2026, with every dollar of incentives mobilizing around $4 in private investment.
A more integrated domestic manufacturing ecosystem could also substantially reduce India’s dependence on imported solar components. The report projects that the country’s annual solar import bill could fall from approximately $4.4 billion currently to zero by 2041 under the Vision 2047 scenario. India could also account for 26.5% of global solar module supply by 2047, compared with a projected 5.9% under the current-policy scenario in 2030.
“India’s solar manufacturing sector stands at a pivotal moment, with the Vision 2047 pathway presenting an unprecedented opportunity to build a globally competitive, integrated manufacturing ecosystem,” Amit Manohar, secretary general of ISMA, said. “The potential to attract $89 billion in investments, generate over 32 lakh jobs and significantly reduce import dependence underscores the strategic importance of strengthening domestic manufacturing across the entire solar value chain. Realising this ambition will require sustained policy support, a predictable demand pipeline, investments in upstream manufacturing and continued efforts to strengthen India’s global competitiveness.”
The report identifies policy certainty, sustained domestic demand, and timely implementation of manufacturing programs as critical to achieving these goals. It calls for maintaining firm timelines under the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM), completing PLI-supported projects, expanding rooftop and agricultural solar programs, and accelerating investment in upstream manufacturing. It also highlights the need to develop domestic manufacturing equipment, strengthen technical skills, promote advanced solar cell technologies, establish recycling frameworks, and expand export markets.
The Vision 2047 scenario outlines a phased transition, with cell manufacturing scaling up through 2030, wafer production expanding through 2035, and a fully integrated solar manufacturing value chain emerging thereafter.
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