IEA forecasts 4,800 GW global renewable capacity growth by 2031 – Power Peak Digest

Posted on November 7, 2026 by Now.Solar


The International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecast in its Renewables 2026 report that global renewable capacity will grow by almost 4,800 GW over 2026-2031, 57% more than in the previous six years. 
For the first time, growth in emerging and developing economies outside China is expected to match that in advanced economies. India becomes the world’s second-largest growth market after China, with expansion 2.6 times greater than in the previous six-year period and its share of global growth almost doubling to nearly 8.5%.
Regional outlook
China remains the largest market, accounting for 53% of global renewable capacity growth over 2026-2031, although its share falls from over 60% in 2025. Renewable capacity additions across Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa almost triple over the forecast period.
Global additions are forecast to decline 11% in 2026 to 733 GW, ending 21 consecutive years of record annual expansion, though the level would still be the second-highest ever registered. The IEA attributes the dip mainly to China, where solar PV deployment was almost 55% lower in the first nine months of 2026 than a year earlier. It linked this to weaker project economics after the government moved from fixed remuneration to competitive auctions in June 2025. Outside China, annual additions are forecast to rise 27% between 2025 and 2031.
Solar and wind
Solar PV remains the main driver, accounting for three-quarters of expansion to 2031. Utility-scale solar PV is forecast to add 2,075 GW over 2026-2031, with distributed applications adding a further 1,530 GW. Global cumulative onshore wind capacity is forecast to rise 1.7-fold to 2,040 GW in 2031, an acceleration of 40% from the previous six-year period. Offshore wind additions are forecast at 117 GW, almost double those of 2020-2025 but 27% below last year’s forecast.
Grids and storage
Renewables are forecast to generate almost 45% of global electricity in 2031, up from 33% in 2025, with wind and solar PV combined exceeding 28%. In 17 countries, variable renewables exceed 50% of the power mix by 2031. This requires stronger grids and interconnections, affordable storage, more dispatchable supply and greater demand-side flexibility.
Technical curtailment of wind and solar PV reached almost 200 TWh in 2025 and could exceed 800 TWh by 2031, equal to almost 8% of variable renewable generation. Hybrid projects combining solar PV, wind and batteries are emerging as an option for flexibility, with generation costs below $75 per MWh in many regions. The report calls India the world’s largest hybrid auction market. Behind-the-meter battery storage is expected to expand almost sixfold to over 670 GWh by 2031, with more than one-third of home PV systems including a battery.
Global grid connection queues for advanced-stage renewable projects rose 60% over the past year to 3,000 GW, with battery storage and hybrid applications accounting for the entire increase. Stricter connection rules and queue management reforms in India, the United Kingdom and the United States removed almost half of early-stage standalone wind and solar PV projects from queues.
Supply chains
China’s dominance of solar PV supply chains persists amid financial strain. Over 90% of major Chinese solar PV manufacturers reported losses in 2026, and more than 70 companies have filed for bankruptcy since 2024. India is emerging as a source of diversification and is expected by 2031 to be the only country besides China able to manufacture every major component of the solar PV supply chain at scale.
Tripling target
In the main case, global renewable capacity reaches around 9,710 GW by 2030, 2.6 times the 2022 level and short of the COP28 target of tripling by 2030. In the accelerated case, faster implementation of competitive auctions, timely grid investment, battery storage expansion and permitting reforms could allow the world to reach the tripling target in 2031.
Transport, heat and fuels
Higher oil prices and energy security concerns led to a 40% upward revision in the forecast for liquid biofuel production growth compared with last year’s report. Liquid biofuel demand is forecast to expand by nearly 30% by 2031. Global biofuel consumption reached 5 EJ in 2025, around 4% of liquid transport fuel use, and growth since 2010 has avoided almost 20 EJ of oil product demand.
Renewable energy use in transport is forecast to rise 60% between 2025 and 2031, meeting 6% of global transport energy demand. Renewable electricity accounts for 45% of this growth, driven by China and Europe, while road biofuels provide a further 35%. Biojet fuel use increases nearly fivefold to 10 billion litres a year by 2031, covering 2% of aviation fuel demand.
Modern renewables’ share of heating demand rises from 15% in 2025 to 19% in 2031, helping heat-related carbon dioxide emissions decline for the first time. Global biogases production is forecast to grow by almost a fifth by 2031, driven entirely by biomethane, whose production nearly doubles. India’s biomethane production is forecast to grow almost ninefold.
Energy security
Without the growth of renewables since 2010, global fossil fuel demand would have been around 8% higher in 2025, equivalent to India’s total energy consumption. Renewables have displaced natural gas consumption equal to 11% of global demand and 2.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. In 2025, fossil fuel demand would have been 14% higher in India, 13% higher in Latin America and 12% higher in the European Union.
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