Solar module prices in China continued to ease in the week to 4 November, according to InfoLink Consulting as manufacturers race to meet annual shipment targets with only about two months left in the year. Producers are increasingly offering concessions to move volumes.
Actual delivery prices for TOPCon modules in China are now around RMB 0.65 to 0.71/W for ground mounted projects and RMB 0.68 to 0.76/W for distributed projects. BC modules command a premium, at RMB 0.75 to 0.77/W for ground mounted projects and RMB 0.78 to 0.81/W for distributed ones.
Outside China, the picture is steadier. The average TOPCon module price stayed at US$0.114/W. European spot prices held firm this week, while regional conflict in the Middle East continues to disrupt shipments and delay logistics for most projects there.
Trade policy is shaping prices in other markets. In the US, the Section 232 announcement of 6 August is expected to push both imported and domestically made module prices higher once the measures take effect, with the minimum import price acting as a floor. In India, a small number of recent orders have moved higher as buyers stock up early ahead of the US measures. Increases have been sharper for projects not subject to the Domestic Content Requirement, while prices for DCR projects have changed little because demand is driven mainly by the domestic market.
Upstream, the signals are mixed. Chinese polysilicon prices remain at a standstill, with n type recycled polysilicon at RMB 42 to 43/kg and granular material at RMB 40 to 41/kg. Only two companies were seen delivering previously placed orders, and buyers and sellers are cautious as they wait for the outcome of upcoming meetings. Some producers have cut output since October, and China’s polysilicon production is expected to fall to about 82,000 MT in November. However, inventories of 380,000 to 390,000 MT mean any rise in spot prices is likely to be limited, especially if cell and module makers also reduce their production schedules.
Wafer prices softened slightly. Prices for 183N wafers held at RMB 0.95 to 1.00 per piece, while 210RN wafers edged down to RMB 1.01 to 1.03 per piece. Prices for 210N wafers stayed at RMB 1.13 to 1.15 per piece, supported by year end deliveries to ground mounted projects in China. Ample supply and inventory pressure at smaller manufacturers are weakening the willingness of sellers to hold firm.
Cell prices show a clear split by format. The average price for 183N cells in China fell to RMB 0.295/W as leading manufacturers raise output in November and purchasing outside China declines. The 210RN average stayed at RMB 0.31/W, though higher end prices and export quotes have already fallen. The 210N average was also RMB 0.31/W but is trending upward and is expected to reach RMB 0.315/W or more by the end of November. A recent sharp fall in silver prices may further weaken support for cell quotes.
For cells outside China, the average price of 182P cells was unchanged at US$0.047/W, with supply mainly tied to toll manufacturing orders. In the 183N segment, higher Chinese output, a pessimistic demand outlook for African and Indian markets and lower silver prices have begun to weigh on prices. The premium for Southeast Asian made cells over Chinese exports has also started to narrow.
For African developers and procurement teams, the softening trend in module and cell prices may offer room to negotiate in the coming weeks, although policy driven price rises in the US and India, and ongoing logistics disruption in the Middle East, remain factors to watch.
Author: Bryan Groenendaal
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