The International Energy Agency (IEA) has published a revised solar photovoltaic outlook for sub-Saharan Africa. 
According to its Renewables 2026 report, published on Friday, November 6, the IEA, lowered its forecast for new utility-scale solar capacity additions by nearly 7 gigawatts (GW) over the 2026–2031 period.
The downward revision comes despite an improved outlook for renewable energy across the region.
The agency however expects sub-Saharan Africa to add more than 120 GW of renewable energy capacity between 2026 and 2031, nearly doubling its currently installed capacity.
Solar photovoltaic installations are expected to account for more than 80% of these additions under the agency’s main scenario.
The weaker outlook for large solar plants is more than offset by stronger growth expectations for distributed solar systems.
The IEA raised its forecast for residential, commercial and off-grid installations by 42 GW. As a result, its overall solar capacity forecast for the region increased by nearly 36 GW on a net basis.
Distributed systems are expected to account for almost two-thirds of new solar photovoltaic capacity.
Demand for these systems is growing as households and businesses seek more reliable and affordable electricity amid fragile power grids, high tariffs and costly reliance on diesel generators.
Declining solar panel and battery costs are reinforcing this trend.
Utility-scale solar plants remain an important component of Africa’s renewable energy development.
However, their deployment depends on developers’ ability to secure financing, find creditworthy electricity buyers and obtain access to transmission networks.
South Africa accounts for 48 per cent of the region’s projected new utility-scale solar capacity.
Investments benefit from the country’s public procurement program for independent power producers, corporate power purchase agreements and electricity wheeling arrangements through state utility Eskom.
Kenya, Namibia and Senegal are also expanding their utility-scale solar sectors.
In Nigeria, Ghana and Angola, large solar projects rely more heavily on government initiatives and development financing.
However, inadequate power infrastructure, transmission congestion and difficulties ensuring project profitability continue to limit progress.
According to the IEA, these constraints are particularly significant in South Africa and Nigeria.
The report also highlights risks associated with state-owned electricity buyers, weak bill collection rates and uncertainty surrounding project procurement procedures.
These factors make it more difficult for developers to secure financing.
Distributed solar projects face a different set of financial challenges, including limited access to local-currency financing, exchange-rate volatility and uncertainty over equipment imports.
Challenges facing large solar developments do not necessarily indicate a broader slowdown in Africa’s solar market.
In a study published in August 2026, energy think tank Ember estimated that Africa installed 12 GW of solar capacity in 2025, nearly twice the 6.2 GW recorded by the IEA.
Ember also projected that new installations would reach 17 GW in 2026, representing a 45% year-on-year increase.
Its estimates rely partly on Chinese solar panel export data and a methodology developed by the organization.
The Global Solar Council has also reported strong market growth.
According to its Africa Market Outlook for Solar PV 2026–2029, solar installations across the continent increased by 54 per cent in 2025.
Utility-scale projects accounted for 56 per cent of recorded capacity additions, while distributed installations represented the remaining 44 per cent.
However, the IEA notes that distributed solar equipment is often difficult to capture in official statistics because it generally operates without a connection to the electricity grid.
As the agency explains, these systems “are difficult for governments to track.”
Accounting for distributed installations therefore significantly changes assessments of Africa’s solar market, where part of the sector’s expansion remains largely invisible in official statistics
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Chika Izuora is a journalist with Leadership Media Group with over two decades of mainstream journalism experience. A Mass Communication graduate and alumnus of Pan Atlantic University (PAU), he has built outstanding expertise in the oil and gas industry alongside a versatile career as a journalist and author.
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