Business
If 2024 and 2025 were years in which many people got used to seeing solar panel prices as if they were on permanent sale, 2026 could turn the page. China, which dominates the global photovoltaic chain, has decided to change something that seems bureaucratic, but directly impacts people’s wallets: VAT refunds on exports.
In practice, what was previously a tax break funded by the state becomes a cost embedded in the final export price. The result expected by market analysts is more expensive panels worldwide, with an estimated increase of between 10% and 20%, depending on the product and the time of purchase.
And there’s a detail that makes everything more “now or never” for those who buy in large volumes: some analysts are already working with the hypothesis that exports may accelerate before the change, precisely to take advantage of the period before the new rules.
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The change is directly related to photovoltaic energy: China will eliminate VAT refunds on exports starting April 1st. This is likely to raise the export price of the product, because the benefit no longer exists to be deducted.
For battery storage, the path is more gradual. According to the scenario described by industry analysts, the VAT refund will fall from 9% to 6% between April and December 2026 and disappear altogether on January 1, 2027. In simpler terms: batteries are also on the path to increased costs, but in two stages.
The official discourse of the Chinese government points to four objectives for this adjustment: reducing excess production capacity, curbing what is considered excessive price competition, stimulating innovation, and avoiding trade friction. This is a two-pronged message. Domestically, it signals control of supply and an attempt to steer the sector toward a less price-based competition. Externally, it indicates a response to trade tensions that have been growing in various markets.
In the midst of all this, the most practical interpretation is simple: if the cost rises at the source of the world’s largest supplier, the bill is passed down throughout the entire chain. Manufacturers adjust. Distributors recalculate. Importers pass it on. Integrators change their proposals. And the end consumer feels it, even if belatedly.
This is where the crux of the matter lies. It’s not just a tax change. It’s the real risk of ending a cycle of very low prices that has become a benchmark for the sector.
According to Renewable energyThe elimination of refunds can, by itself, push the price of modules up by around 10%, and when this is added to the increased cost of raw materials, the jump can reach 15% or 20% in specific components.
And there’s more pressure appearing at the same time. Polysilicon, a central raw material for cell production, has seen an increase of nearly 30% in some recent periods. The justification cited by industry participants involves coordinated production cuts to reduce previous oversupply. In figures circulating in the market, the spot price per kilogram has risen from around four euros to over five euros, with references pointing to something close to 6,39 euros in mid-January 2026.
When polysilicon prices rise, they drag everything else down with it. And it’s not just polysilicon. There are reports of increases in wafers, cells, glass, and especially silver, which is used in parts of the manufacturing process. The market is left with a combination that nobody likes: less favorable taxes and more expensive raw materials at the same time.
The most likely effect is a rapid transition. The module price will rise first. The battery price will rise along with it. The complete system takes a little longer to reflect this, because installers and distributors are still trying to clear out stock bought at the old price. But the stock doesn’t last forever. When it runs out, the new price becomes the norm.
For the Brazilian reader, the most useful part is understanding where the impact is felt. Brazil is a significant importer of photovoltaic components. When the international price rises, the supply chain here feels it in three places.
First, consider the price of the kit, modules, inverters, cables, and infrastructure. Second, consider the delivery time, because a rush for advance purchases can disrupt logistics. Third, consider the return calculation, because when the initial investment is higher, the payback period tends to be longer, even if the electricity bill remains high.
This doesn’t mean that solar energy ceases to make sense. It means that the window of very low prices may be closing. And when a market grows accustomed to cheap modules, any 10% to 20% increase becomes a topic of conversation, budgeting, and a reason for postponed decisions.
One potential side effect is the return of strategies that had lost momentum, such as a greater search for alternative manufacturers outside of China, attempts to diversify supply, and increased volume trading. However, none of these movements are instantaneous. China remains the center of the chessboard.
The reason this news is going global isn’t just taxes. It’s scale. China is the largest producer of solar panels and also the country that installs the most photovoltaic systems.
In 2024, the country installed something like 277 gigawatts, a record that alone surpasses the combined annual capacity of many markets. By mid-2025, total Chinese solar capacity would have exceeded 1.100 gigawatts. When a country of this size changes its fiscal rules, there is no such thing as “just local.” Everything becomes global.
On the industrial side, shipment rankings show a dominant group of manufacturers with well-known market names, such as Jinko, Longi, JA Solar, and Trina, maintaining their leadership for several years. This concentrated top position reinforces an important point: the supply chain is not fragmented. When costs change, they affect many people simultaneously.
In the end, the message is clear. The price of solar panels won’t rise for “one reason.” It could rise due to a combination of factors: less tax incentives, higher input costs, and an official strategy to curb price wars. For those who follow solar energy, 2026 could be exactly the year the market stops talking about cheap modules and starts talking about real costs again.
Flavia Marinho is a postgraduate engineer with extensive experience in the onshore and offshore shipbuilding industry. In recent years, she has dedicated herself to writing articles for news websites in the areas of military, security, industry, oil and gas, energy, shipbuilding, geopolitics, jobs, and courses. Contact her at flaviacamil@gmail.com or WhatsApp +55 21 973996379 for corrections, story suggestions, job postings, or advertising proposals on our portal.
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