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Replacement and expansion of decommissioned solar photovoltaic projects will represent 23% of new solar capacity additions during the 2040s, according to a report from Wood Mackenzie. The research, published by the energy consultancy, examines how the decommissioning of solar and wind projects will shape the clean energy transition.
The report, titled Renewing renewables: The next chapter in the energy transition, uses wind as its primary example of how projects reach the ends of their operational lives and require replacement, though many of the identified trends apply to solar as well. Wood Mackenzie estimates that during the 2040s, projects accounting for more than 2.5 terawatts of combined wind and solar capacity will reach the ends of their operational lives, requiring project owners to decide on the future of those assets.
Using the European wind industry as an illustration, the report notes that meeting European Commission deployment targets requires 37 gigawatts of new wind additions annually between 2023 and 2030. The industry is already falling short of that target, and a further 17 gigawatts of capacity will be decommissioned during the same period, meaning Europe must effectively add 39 gigawatts per year to reach the 2030 goal.
The report indicates that solar and wind decommissioning will remove a significant volume of generation from the grid, particularly from 2040 onward. As power demand continues to grow, close to 8,000 terawatt-hours of new generation will be needed by 2050 to account for rising demand and the reduction in output from existing solar and wind assets.
Earlier in the year, speakers at the Solar Media Clean Power 2030 Summit said project developers must actively consider end-of-life activities when building an asset, and that simply dismantling a project at the end of its life would be an unwise decision. Asset owners typically aim to revamp a project by replacing parts and components with new versions to restore original output, or repower it by adding new components to improve capacity or output.
Wood Mackenzie reports that solar has seen greater technological advancements than other renewable energy industries such as wind, estimating that a new technology has entered the solar sector every other year over the past decade. In a repowering context, this means solar assets have a shorter operational lifetime than they are designed for, as asset owners look to capitalise on new technological advancements rather than repair existing assets, according to the report, which was written by Soren Lassen, Chris Seiple and Charles Coppins.
Despite the scale of the challenge, the report notes that the solar PV industry could be well-positioned to capitalise on the need to replace operating capacity, because the speed at which new technological innovations are deployed means repowered solar projects could see significant improvements in generation. Module efficiencies increased by 69% between 2005 and 2025, and technology is already available that could increase cell efficiency by more than 50% by 2045. Project sites are also becoming smaller, with average project sites today as much as 30% smaller than projects of the same capacity in 2010.
The report concludes that decommissioning work will drive more than 70% of installations of new renewable energy projects across Europe. However, the authors note that this trend will not be universal, with decommissioning work contributing to just 1% of new capacity additions in Asia.
Interactive table based on the Store Companies dataset for this report.
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Concise View of Market Direction
Market Size, Growth and Scenario Framing
Commercial and Technical Scope
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Where Demand Comes From and How It Behaves
Supply Footprint, Trade and Value Capture
Trade Flows and External Dependence
Price Formation and Revenue Logic
Who Wins and Why
Where Growth and Supply Concentrate
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Detailed View of the Most Important National Markets
How the Report Was Built
Largest solar cell & module producer globally.
World's largest monocrystalline wafer & module maker.
Major integrated solar manufacturer.
Leading producer of high-performance PV products.
Global manufacturer with production in Americas & Asia.
Major cell/module maker with US & Asian production.
Top-tier PV module and cell manufacturer.
Largest thin-film solar manufacturer globally.
Major LED chip & packaging for displays/lighting.
Pioneer and leading supplier of LED phosphors & chips.
Historically leading innovator in LED chips.
Major European LED & opto-semiconductor producer.
Producer of high-efficiency IBC solar cells.
World's largest producer of solar cell wafers.
Leading ABC cell (N-type) technology producer.
Rapidly growing solar cell and module manufacturer.
Integrated PV manufacturer under Chint Group.
Major global LED packaging and component supplier.
Leading supplier of LED components for automotive/lighting.
One of world's largest LED epitaxial wafer & chip makers.
Innovator in LED packaging (WICOP) and chip technology.
Major LED component supplier, part of LG Group.
Key LED epitaxy and chip manufacturer.
Historically significant in both PV and LED production.
Major PV manufacturer part of GCL Group.
Specialist in N-type TOPCon solar cells and modules.
Historic PV leader, continues manufacturing.
Leading LED chip manufacturer, part of Ennostar.
Major LED packaging company for lighting & display.
Leading Chinese LED packaging and component supplier.
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