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Ember’s October analysis indicates Africa could set a new benchmark by bringing 17 gigawatts of solar capacity online during 2026, with distributed installations likely accounting for approximately three-quarters of that figure — a category that tends to be undercounted in official records.
The forecast points to roughly a 45 per cent annual increase in solar additions, building on gains of 51 per cent during 2025 and 25 per cent in 2024. According to Ember, 36 out of the continent’s 54 nations are expected to post their strongest yearly solar growth to date in 2026.
For the first time since 2019, South Africa is projected to account for under a fifth of Africa’s total installations, reflecting faster deployment in other significant markets. Ember’s estimates show six nations each reaching at least 1 gigawatt of additions in 2026: South Africa at 3.3 gigawatts, Egypt at 2 gigawatts, Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo at 1.7 gigawatts apiece, Algeria at 1.4 gigawatts and Morocco at 1 gigawatt.
Several emerging markets are seeing especially swift growth. Ember calculates that 19 countries will post year-on-year gains exceeding 100 per cent, among them the Democratic Republic of the Congo at 544 per cent, Zimbabwe at 282 per cent, Egypt at 176 per cent and Zambia at 117 per cent.
This momentum stems from greater uptake of commercial rooftop installations, estate developments and solar-plus-storage projects, alongside major utility-scale ventures. Consequently, Ember suggests that customs records and installer surveys may capture deployment more accurately than certain national capacity registries.
Progress on wider electricity access across Africa continues as well. The World Bank Group and African Development Bank reported in June 2026 that Mission 300 had reached over 50 million people in 40 countries since July 2023. Tanzania, Nigeria and Ethiopia ranked among the top beneficiaries, with Kenya connecting roughly two million people and Malawi approximately 1.9 million.
Nevertheless, access goals remain difficult to meet. The International Energy Agency has calculated that achieving universal electricity access in Africa would need about $15 billion each year, while sub-Saharan Africa saw under $2.5 billion dedicated to new connections in 2023.
Kowatek Solar stated that Ember’s numbers mirror rising Nigerian appetite for tailored solar-and-storage solutions as companies increasingly abandon backup generators.
Interactive table based on the Store Companies dataset for this report.
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Supply Footprint, Trade and Value Capture
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Innovator in WICOP and SunLike technologies
LED components for automotive and IT
IBC cell technology leader
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Integrated PV manufacturer
Historically significant in both fields
Rapidly growing cell and module producer
Solar manufacturing arm of Chint Group
Module manufacturer with US focus
Leading Indian solar manufacturer
LED packaging and lighting solutions
Major LED packaging company
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