The installed capacity of wind and solar power has exceeded 2 billion kilowatts, and the flexibility pricing mechanism for the power system is pending implementation.
Energy Foresight learned that on October 26, the National Energy Administration released the power statistics for the period from January to September. By the end of September, the cumulative installed capacity of wind and solar power had reached 2.01 billion kilowatts, including 1.31 billion kilowatts of solar power and 700 million kilowatts of wind power.
However, another set of figures previously disclosed at the official press conference sent a signal in the opposite direction: in the first half of 2026, the wind power utilization rate was 90.9% and the photovoltaic power utilization rate was 91.4%, down 2.3 and 2.6 percentage points year-on-year respectively, marking three consecutive years of year-on-year decline. While the installed capacity is expanding, the utilization rate is shrinking, and the two curves have formed a collision gap in the same statistical report for the first time.
On August 28, the Shandong Provincial Development and Reform Commission launched a public consultation, adjusting the lower limit of electric energy bidding price from -0.08 yuan/kWh to -0.12 yuan/kWh, and the lower limit of clearing price from -0.10 yuan/kWh to -0.14 yuan/kWh. The policy only relaxes constraints during low load periods, while the upper limit remains completely unchanged.
When photovoltaic power generation peaks at noon, electricity can be even cheaper, or even priced more negatively; when there is a power shortage during evening peak hours, the price will still stay at a high level. In February 2026, the lowest daily electricity price in the Shandong spot power market once dropped to 0.0054 yuan/kWh, almost touching zero.
For new energy operators, the harm does not lie in losing money for a few hours, but in the fact that the foundation of their revenue model has been undermined.
In the past, the accounting logic was “utilization hours × electricity price”, meaning the more power generated, the higher the revenue. After the negative electricity price range is widened, the extra power generated at noon not only fails to make profits, but may even lead to additional losses.
A 2 to 3 percentage point drop in utilization rate is not a marginal fluctuation on the financial statement, but a direct reduction in settled electricity volume, while the capital expenditure for energy storage allocation and the cycle life loss still need to be covered from the same revenue pool.
What is more troublesome is that the distribution of power consumption pressure is extremely uneven geographically.
Relevant researchers from the State Grid Energy Research Institute judge that the curtailment of new energy power is continuously concentrating in the “Three North” regions. It is estimated that by 2030, the curtailment volume in the “Three North” regions will account for 80% of the total curtailment in the State Grid’s operating area, curtailment in spring and autumn will account for 74% of the annual total, and curtailment at noon will account for 74% of the daily total. This is not a blanket pressure applied evenly across all regions, but a sharp knife that cuts right at the two points of the northwest region and noon. The utilization rate in eastern provinces is still above 95%, while some bases in the northwest are already looking for consumption outlets for every kilowatt-hour of power generated at noon.
Coal power has received its first institutional income. Since 2026, the proportion of fixed costs recovered through coal power capacity tariffs has been uniformly increased to no less than 50%, with the national average at about 165 yuan/kW·year, and the top level of 330 yuan/kW·year reached in Gansu and Yunnan.
This fund is not paid for the amount of electricity generated, but for the generation units. In the first half of 2026, the proportion of coal power generation in total power generation fell below 50% for the first time to 49.7%, but in the same period, coal power provided about 70% of the peak shaving capacity and 80% of the regulation capacity. While power generation volume is decreasing, the supporting role of coal power is growing, and the capacity tariff is designed to price this mismatch.
However, the 165 yuan per kilowatt per year only covers part of the fixed costs, and cannot make up for the market price difference.
The current account book of coal power is divided into three parts: The energy tariff follows market fluctuations, the capacity tariff is settled at a fixed rate based on available capacity, and the ancillary service is priced according to the contribution of peak shaving and frequency regulation. After the three parts are combined, coal power has transformed from a “power generation provider relying on natural resources” to a “regulation service provider relying on performance fulfillment”, but the third part is the truly flexible part, which also relies most on detailed provincial implementation rules.
The minimum technical output of pure condensing units has been reduced to 25% to 40%, and the market size of deep peak shaving renovation in 2026 is expected to reach the level of 8 billion yuan. How much compensation will be given for peak shaving after the renovation? The deep peak shaving compensation standard in the northeast ancillary service market once reached a maximum of 0.7 yuan/kWh, but that is the price for specific regions and specific gears, not a unified national price.
The implementation opinions on coal power integration clearly states that “synergetic operation will be realized through participation in the power market”, but the absence of a revenue distribution formula means that the investment in flexibility transformation and the deviation cost of joint quotation are still hanging between power generation enterprises and provincial regulatory rules.
On October 26, four design institutes under PowerChina, namely Beijing Engineering Corporation, Northwest Engineering Corporation, Henan Electric Power Design Institute and Fujian Electric Power Survey & Design Institute, won the bids for five projects: the 2nd phase of Hubei “Eneng Shandian” project with 36 integrated photovoltaic-storage-charging stations for heavy trucks, with a contract value of 1.902 billion yuan; the 400MW/800MWh independent energy storage project in Baise, with a contract value of 764 million yuan; the 200MW/400MWh independent energy storage project in Xiyang, with a contract value of 478 million yuan; the 100MW wind power project in Baishui, with a contract value of 140 million yuan; the 200MW wind power project in Runan, with a contract value of 268 million yuan, totaling 3.552 billion yuan.
Almost at the same time, the consortium that Guangxi Electric Power Design Institute under China Energy Engineering Group participated in won the bid for the 150MW photovoltaic-storage integrated project in Yuanping, Xinzhou, with 450MWh of energy storage configured for photovoltaic power generation, equivalent to a unit price of about 3.57 yuan per watt. The bid-winning structure within a single day is more truthful than any strategic plan: the same design institute is delivering charging networks, independent energy storage and wind power projects at the same time, which is not a simple concentration of construction shares.
When the unit of project comparison gradually shifts from “how many megawatts are installed” to “how much dispatchable regulation capacity is delivered in which time period”, the premium of the pure construction link will be compressed.
The Basic Rules for the Spot Power Market, which was open for public consultation on October 19, allows new energy sources and the energy storage configured inside the plant to act as a joint quotation entity, and the deviation assessment will be imposed on the consortium. The coal power integration dispatch requires that the minimum output, ramp rate and maintenance window of coal-fired units be put into the same operation plan together with the output curves of wind and solar power in the adjacent area.
A single-link construction contractor cannot complete these tasks, and what is needed is the integration capability that can incorporate coal power, wind power, solar power and energy storage into the same set of operation logic. In the first half of 2026, the energy and power order proportion of PowerChina exceeded 62%, but its price-to-book ratio is still at a low level.
The market is still applying the valuation framework for building construction, and the migration of order structure has not been fully priced. It does not mean that revaluation will definitely happen, but when the competition focus shifts from construction cost to collaborative operation effect, the valuation anchor will sooner or later follow the connotation of the orders.

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